Bitcoin (BTC) can easily end up below $25,000 next month, says one longtime market observer.
In a new BTC price outlook, Timothy Peterson, founder and investment manager at Cane Island Alternative Advisors, put the odds of a dip to local lows at 50/50.
BTC price may see “last big dip” in September
While Bitcoin bulls continue their breakout attempts above $30,000, various popular traders and analysts have their sights on lower levels.
Peterson, well known for his technical insights, now believes that the typical August and September performance may yield a return to the $25,000 mark.
Uploading a chart of monthly performance statistics for BTC/USD to X (formerly known as Twitter), he concluded that a “last big dip” may hit before September is over. Put another way, BTC price downside over the next six weeks or so could top 15%.
“There is a 50% chance that bitcoin will drop below $25,000 before the end of September,” accompanying commentary stated.
“This would be the last big dip before the next big bull run cycle commences.”
BTC/USD monthly returns comparison. Source: Timothy Peterson/X
As Cointelegraph reported, September is traditionally a “bad” month for Bitcoin bulls. Since 2017, BTC price action has finished the month lower than its starting price every year.
August, meanwhile, is a mixed bag, offering either modest gains or modest losses, with 2017 as a notable exception.
Bitcoin Lowest Price Forward says $100,000 by mid-2026
Continuing, Peterson doubled down on Bitcoin’s bullish outlook.
In addition to predicting a final significant retracement before the bull run, recent analysis gave a deadline of less than 1,000 days — less than three years — for BTC/USD to hit a giant $100,000.
This came courtesy of the “Lowest Price Forward” metric, which delivers price prognoses for specific dates in the future.
Formerly known as a calculator of Bitcoin’s “never look back price,” Its claim to fame lies in correctly predicting Bitcoin’s last ever visit to $10,000 in September 2020.
“If you dismissed Bitcoin’s ‘Lowest Price Forward’ trend because of the dip in 2022, remember that Bitcoin’s price normally dips below the trend after a bear market,” a confident Peterson wrote in an X post on Aug. 8.
“Bear markets are for waiting, not doubting. Bitcoin is less than 1000 days away from $100K.”
Bitcoin Lowest Price Forward annotated chart. Source: Timothy Peterson/X
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.