Glassnode analyst sees a stronger Bitcoin bottom signal, with $69,000 in focus
Glassnode analyst Cryptovizart says Bitcoin may be nearing a market bottom, even after June’s slide left BTC just above $60,000. The clue comes from a specific cohort: investors who have held Bitcoin for one to two years. They are selling fewer coins at a loss. That matters. In past bear markets, heavy loss-taking by this group has often peaked near the end of the downturn. My read: the shift deserves attention, not celebration.
The analysis tracks realized losses among those one-to-two-year holders. When they capitulate and sell below their purchase price, much of the forced or fear-driven selling may already have happened. Falling losses can therefore suggest the market is finding its footing. Does that identify the exact bottom? No. Most market commentary wants one clean signal; that is only half right. “May” remains the important word, because a single indicator cannot pinpoint the bottom.
The figure to watch is $75 million. Specifically, the 30-day moving average of realized losses for this group climbed above that mark, reversed, then moved lower. Cryptovizart says comparable reversals in previous cycles appeared near the end of the harshest selling. As the analyst put it, “…When the 30-day moving average (30D-SMA) of realized losses turns downwards and trades sideways, this has often been one of the clearest early signals that the most intense distribution phase in the market is over.” It is a strong pattern. Still not proof.
The broader economy can wreck the setup. Uncertainty in traditional markets may push investors away from riskier assets such as Bitcoin; tighter liquidity tied to Federal Reserve interest-rate policy can do the same. I’ll be honest: lower loss-making sales are encouraging, but they are nowhere near a green light. Counter to the usual advice, holder conviction alone cannot overpower macro pressure. The market may have absorbed much of the Bitcoin held by nervous sellers while Fed policy and other economic pressures continue dragging on prices.
Cryptovizart also cautions that lower realized losses do not prove Bitcoin has bottomed. Bottoms usually develop slowly: sellers thin out, then buyers return. Glassnode’s weekly report supplies a second concrete test—roughly $69,000, the estimated cost basis of short-term holders. Below $69,000, many recent buyers are underwater. Above $69,000, they are back in profit. Why does that matter? Because reclaiming and holding the level would make the loss data harder to dismiss, while leaving recent buyers less tempted to sell. My take: promising, yes. Finished? Not remotely.
What this means
The heaviest selling among one-to-two-year Bitcoin holders may be easing. Their 30-day average realized losses moved above $75 million before turning lower, a pattern seen in previous cycles as panic selling began to burn itself out. The market could now be absorbing the remaining supply and entering an accumulation period. But here is the uncomfortable correction: a bottom signal does not mean an immediate rally. Expect some mess. Even a genuine bottom can look ugly while it forms.
For traders, $69,000 is the cleaner test. A sustained move above that level would return short-term holders to profit and strengthen the recovery argument. A quick spike means little. If BTC falls straight back, cannot reclaim $69,000, or sees one-to-two-year holders begin taking heavy losses again, the bottoming case weakens. Is waiting for confirmation overly cautious? No—not when June left BTC just above $60,000. I would watch the next Glassnode reports closely: they should show whether realized losses keep falling or start creeping higher.