Gemini, a prominent cryptocurrency exchange, recently published its 2024 Crypto Outlook, providing an in-depth analysis of the upcoming trends and predictions for the year in the crypto industry.
One of the key highlights mentioned in Gemini’s report is the potential approval of spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) in the United States. The report suggests that if a spot Bitcoin ETF is approved, it could have a significant impact on the price of Bitcoin. Gemini predicts a staggering 123% increase in Bitcoin’s price within a year of such approval. This prediction is based on the historical relationship between gold holdings and returns, implying a similar effect on Bitcoin. Gemini further emphasizes that the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF would solidify Bitcoin’s status as a legitimate institutional-grade investment, potentially opening up the massive $36.7 trillion retirement fund market to the cryptocurrency asset class.
Another topic highlighted in Gemini’s report is the Bitcoin Halving event scheduled for April 2024. The report indicates that this event, which will reduce the mining reward from 6.25 to 3.125 bitcoins, is expected to decrease the supply of new Bitcoin entering the market. Gemini points out the historical trend of Bitcoin’s price experiencing significant upward movement following previous halving events. They consider the halving as a reaffirmation of Bitcoin’s core attributes, including predictability, reliability, and trustworthiness.
Regulation is also addressed in Gemini’s Crypto Outlook. The report recognizes the progress made in regulatory frameworks globally, highlighting the European Union’s influential role and thoughtful approach to crypto regulation. Gemini specifically acknowledges the passage of MiCA in the EU as a landmark moment in crypto-specific regulation. The report underscores the importance of a favorable regulatory regime, cautioning that a hostile environment could lead beneficial market actors to move offshore and potentially pose an existential threat to the economy. In the context of the United States, Gemini asserts that the country is at a critical juncture in its approach to crypto regulation, suggesting that regulation by enforcement is insufficient for clarity or consumer protection and may impede innovation.
Addressing security, Gemini’s report emphasizes the ongoing importance of protecting wallets and accounts from sophisticated attackers. They predict that attackers will continue to find new ways to access cryptocurrency holdings and stress the increasing significance of unphishable multi-factor authentication (MFA) methods like passkeys and Yubikeys. Gemini anticipates a shift in the security industry towards the development of Web3 security tools and protections, including technologies for consumers to safeguard their Web3 accounts and assets. In collaboration with industry leaders, Gemini has also created the REKT Test, a tool to assess best practices in access control, key management, and protection against hacker exploits. This initiative exhibits the industry’s commitment to enhancing security frameworks, guidelines, and best practices.
Overall, Gemini’s 2024 Crypto Outlook offers valuable insights into potential developments in the crypto industry. The report highlights the significance of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval, the impact of the Bitcoin halving, the importance of regulatory frameworks, and the need for enhanced security measures in the Web3 space.