July Bitcoin Forecast: Eric Crown’s Expert Analysis
In a video released on June 22, renowned crypto analyst and trader Eric Crown shared his expert analysis on what to expect from Bitcoin in July 2024.
Crown starts by looking at historical returns for the month of July and compares them to the past few months. He highlights that historically, July has been a positive month for Bitcoin, with nine out of the last fourteen Julys closing positively. This results in a probability of just over 64% for a positive close.
According to Crown, the average return for positive closing months in July is around 19%, while negative closing months averaged a loss of about 9%. He suggests that if Bitcoin continues to consolidate, we can expect a price range between $60,000 and $70,000. Crown emphasizes that as long as Bitcoin stays above the lows reached in May, the probability favors an upward movement, although there are no certainties given the performance in June.
Crown compares the current month’s returns with those of June, noting that June has been relatively uneventful, with minimal price movement. He interprets this as a sign of Bitcoin slowing down for the summer and entering an extended consolidation period. The market sentiment is becoming highly reactive, with traders becoming bullish on any $1,000 increase and bearish on any $1,000 decrease.
The analyst points out that altcoins are displaying significant levels of volatility, reacting strongly to even minor Bitcoin price movements. This altcoin behavior contributes to the negative sentiment in the market. Crown also notes that compared to last year, Bitcoin is trading at more than double its value, which he sees as a positive sign.
Looking ahead, Crown predicts that Bitcoin will likely close June around $65,000, maintaining the consolidation range. He mentions that historically, Saturdays have shown the lowest volatility for Bitcoin, with a slightly higher probability of a positive close. However, the returns on Saturdays are minimal, both on the positive and negative sides.
Crown highlights that the CME’s weekly closure showed Bitcoin slightly above the median, keeping bullish hopes alive in the short term. He predicts that the opening price on Monday will be significant for price action, potentially setting up a short-term scalping opportunity if Bitcoin opens above $60,000. However, Crown warns that a failure to hold above this level could indicate potential downside risks.
Referring to his Quant Automation service, Crown mentions a daily setup for Bitcoin, stating that the strike rate for this setup is around 52%, similar to a coin flip. However, the value lies in the average winning trade being over 22% and the average losing trade being just over 8%. Crown observes that Bitcoin has been consolidating within a $10,000 range and is currently resting on the 50% retracement level at around $63,900.
If Bitcoin fails to hold this level, Crown believes it could drop to the $61,000 to $62,000 range, which he sees as a critical area for maintaining bullish hopes. He emphasizes that even if a higher low is established, it will likely take time, potentially extending through the end of July and into August, setting up a possible breakout in the fourth quarter.
Crown concludes by noting that the market remains in a consolidation phase, and significant movements are unlikely in the immediate term.