TON (The Open Network) is projected to surpass Ether in terms of holder numbers by the end of the year, according to Maarten, a Community Analyst at CryptoQuant. TON has been attracting approximately 500,000 new holders daily over the past month, bringing its total count to 112 million. If this trend continues, TON could close the gap with Ethereum’s 137 million holders by December 20. However, there are two important assumptions to consider. Firstly, TON’s growth rate may slow down, delaying its surpassing of Ethereum until February 3, 2025, if the daily increase drops by one standard deviation. Secondly, Ethereum’s holder count is also increasing slowly, which could affect the projections. Nevertheless, it is likely that TON will soon have more holders than Ethereum.
In terms of risk and market position, TON’s Sharpe Ratio has been declining, indicating lower volatility and reduced risk. However, further decreases in risk could occur before the next significant market shift, particularly with Bitcoin’s current narrow range. While this decrease in risk may be positive for existing TON holders, it does not eliminate all risks associated with the cryptocurrency. Bears in the market are pushing TON’s price downwards, aiming to break through a key support level at $5. If successful, TON’s price could drop further to a critical support zone between $4.72 and $4.44. A break in this area could potentially lead to a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern, driving the price towards $3.50. On the other hand, a rebound in price at this level could indicate increased demand at lower prices and potentially signal a comeback by the bulls. Investors will be closely monitoring the movement above the moving averages for any signs of a recovery.
In contrast, Ethereum is experiencing significant outflows, with Coinbase recording the second-largest ETH outflow in three months. In a single hour, 543,000 ETH (equivalent to over $1.3 billion) left the exchange. While it is uncertain whether this transaction represents institutional buying or an internal Coinbase transfer, if it is indeed institutional, it would indicate considerable interest in ETH from institutions. Verification of the nature of this outflow is pending.