Trump’s advantage over Harris on Polymarket has lessened as Bitcoin’s price drops to $68,000. According to data from Polymarket, the former president’s odds decreased from 66.9% to 54%, while Harris saw a noticeable increase in her chances, rising from 33.5% to 46.1%. These changes in market sentiment are occurring as the election approaches on November 5. Polymarket is a platform built on the Ethereum blockchain that allows users to trade shares in real-world outcomes using stablecoin (USDC) instead of more volatile cryptocurrencies. A gambler known as Théo has reportedly wagered over $30 million on a Trump victory.
In addition to the Polymarket data, a recent poll from the Des Moines Register/Mediacom indicates positive prospects for Harris. The poll, conducted by renowned pollster Ann Selzer, shows that Harris leads Trump in Iowa by three percentage points among likely voters, with 47% support compared to Trump’s 44%. This marks a significant shift from the poll conducted in September, where Trump had a 4-point advantage. Selzer stated that the same methodology used in previous years, when Trump won Iowa, was applied in this poll as well.
The narrative surrounding the candidates’ positions on cryptocurrency regulation has also gained relevance to investors. Trump has demonstrated strong support for crypto, making public commitments and accepting crypto donations for his campaign. Harris, on the other hand, has taken a more measured approach, indicating that her administration would support crypto as part of a broader strategy to enhance economic competitiveness. Ripple(XRP) co-founder Chris Larsen, who donated over $11.8 million to Harris’s campaign, believes she will take a different approach to crypto than President Joe Biden.
As state polls and Polymarket forecasts exhibit volatility, the price of Bitcoin has reflected the uncertain political climate. Bitcoin experienced a drop to $68,000, and the global crypto market cap decreased by 1.95% to $2.28 trillion. Although Bitcoin managed to climb above $68,000 at the time of writing, Ethereum (ETH) also saw a decline to the $2,400 level.