Where Prediction Markets Settle Bets on Trump or Harris Winning the Election
As the U.S. presidential election approaches a crucial point, prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are preparing to settle millions of dollars in bets on the outcome. These platforms have gained popularity recently, and even Robinhood has introduced similar offerings, allowing traders to wager on the next commander-in-chief. However, determining the winner of the election won’t be as simple as flipping a coin. Each market has its own rules for resolving bets between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.
Polymarket, which has reached a total volume of over $3.2 billion, relies on a consensus among media publications such as the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC News. Once all three outlets declare the same candidate as the winner, the market will likely resolve around either Trump or Harris. The platform’s rules allow for contested election results, and if no consensus is reached by January 20, the winner will be determined based on the inauguration.
To avoid the uncertainty of a contested election, Polymarket opened a separate market for traders to bet on who will be inaugurated. This market has already attracted $2.5 million in trading volume.
Kalshi, on the other hand, simply looks at which party sees their candidate inaugurated as the winner of the presidential election. This means that Harris or Trump could be declared the winner, even if their running mate is the one formally admitted to office.
Robinhood’s election prediction market relies on contracts offered by ForecastEx. The winner of the presidential election, according to the terms of ForecastEx’s contracts, is determined by the certification process. After Congress holds a joint session on January 6 to certify the results, the contracts will be resolved the next day based on the published results.
Given Trump’s claims of election fraud in the past and his recent questioning of voter tallies, there may be some controversy surrounding the election process. Traders participating in these prediction markets may choose to sell their shares and lock in gains or losses, or they may have to wait for a payout, depending on the platform they used.
In this highly anticipated and closely watched election, the prediction markets are taking different approaches to determine the winner. Regardless of the outcome, these platforms will be settling millions of dollars in bets placed on Trump or Harris.