Reducing the reward and increasing the cost: how halving will affect the Bitcoin rate

Long before April 20th and the decrease in the block reward, there were numerous speculations regarding how Bitcoin halving would impact the price and the mining industry as a whole. Let’s take a closer look at some of the estimates and scenarios.

Optimistic Forecasts

Robert Kiyosaki, the author of “Rich Dad Poor Dad” and an avid crypto enthusiast, predicts that BTC could reach as high as $2.3 million. He recently purchased an additional 10 coins before the halving. Kiyosaki has been a vocal critic of fiat currencies and sees Bitcoin and gold as viable alternatives.

Experienced trader Peter Brandt is also optimistic, expecting Bitcoin to reach $200,000 by September 2025. He bases his predictions on both fundamental and technical analysis. Brandt believes that the current bullish cycle will conclude in August-September 2025, which led him to raise his previous estimate from $120,000 to $200,000.

Analysts from the brokerage firm Bernstein have a more conservative, yet positive, outlook. They have increased their target price for Bitcoin at the end of the year from $80,000 to $90,000.

However, not all experts share the same optimism.

Reserved Forecasts

Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes predicts a market decline after halving. However, he remains optimistic about long-term growth. He believes that the overly optimistic sentiment in the market may lead to a correction immediately after the halving.

Experts from Coinbase, the largest American crypto exchange, suggest that the halving may not have a significant impact on the price of Bitcoin. They argue that the asset had already experienced significant growth even before the event.

Pessimistic Forecasts

Some experts, like TheMinerMag, predict that only 20% of mining companies will be able to maintain their income levels after the halving, while others will suffer reduced profits.

Furthermore, it is widely believed that the halving will negatively impact those using outdated mining equipment. Ki Young Ju from CryptoQuant predicts that the cost of mining one Bitcoin using an Antminer S19 XP (a model that appeared in 2022) will increase to $80,000. This means that only a significant increase in the coin’s value will allow miners with older equipment to remain profitable.

Some market players have prepared for the halving by increasing their mining equipment. For example, Fitfarms deployed 5,000 new units of BTC mining equipment in an optimistic move.

A Brief History of Halvings

The three previous halvings have all had a positive impact on the price of Bitcoin. The first halving in November 2012 saw Bitcoin priced at $12.30 per coin. Just over a year later, in December 2013, the price rose to $1,000 (although it subsequently dropped to $200 and remained at that level for some time).

Second halving occurred on July 9, 2016, with BTC trading at $650. By December 2017, the price soared to its peak at $19,000.

After the third halving on May 11, 2020, the price of BTC surged from $8,700 to $60,000 in less than a year (breaking records in March and April 2021).

Technical Analysis

In the short term, the situation does not indicate growth in 2024, at least as of April 20th. Bitcoin is currently undergoing a correction, with a drop in value below $60,000 in the past seven days. The 50-day moving average is above the current price, and the RSI indicator remains below 50. A change in trend may only occur if the price breaks through the level of $73,794, which is likely to happen after the halving. Conversely, if the support level of $59,600 is not held, selling pressure may continue.


Many experts believe that the 2024 Bitcoin halving will ultimately benefit the cryptocurrency, even if the immediate impact is not immediately apparent. Historical analysis of past halvings, as well as the reduction in supply, supports the long-term growth scenario. However, it is crucial to monitor the market and evaluate trends after breaching the key support and resistance levels.

Disclaimer: This material and the information contained herein should not be considered as investment advice. The opinions expressed by the author, analytical portals, and experts may not align with those of the editors.