There is a sense of optimism in the crypto community as the prospect of SEC approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF looms on the horizon. This enthusiasm has been a major catalyst in the recent two-month rise in cryptocurrency prices as investors eagerly await the green light from regulators.
Recent analysis by industry insiders has shifted expectations that were initially conservative to a more confident outlook. Matrixport analysts, including head of research Markus Thielen, believe a breakout is imminent and give a 95% chance that a spot Bitcoin ETF will get the green light by January 2024.
The likelihood that the SEC will approve a spot Bitcoin ETF in January 2024 is 95%
January 10 is marked as a key date by which the SEC is likely to approve at least one of the thirteen applications under consideration. The assumptions are based on several guidance, including BlackRock’s amended S-1 filing with the SEC, which addresses specific recommendations such as monitoring for price violations, secure cold storage of private keys, and contingency planning for Bitcoin forks.
Moreover, the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) swift response to investment firm Franklin-Templeton’s November filing ahead of the January deadline signals the regulator’s proactive approach. This makes it appear that the regulator is synchronizing the process to potentially grant multiple approvals by January 10, 2024.
Thielen highlights this active SEC engagement with potential ETF issuers as a new and indicative development.. Reconciling SEC guidance through discussions with various issuers demonstrates a coordinated strategy, paving the way for a single approval outcome, he said.