Arthur Hayes, a renowned crypto trader, has made a short-term forecast regarding Bitcoin’s price, predicting a 30% decline. He attributes this potential drop to the recent launch of the Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), which he sees as a cautionary sign. Hayes also points to the correlation between Bitcoin’s peak and the 2-year US treasury hitting a local low, noting that the latter is gradually increasing.
In response to the argument that Bitcoin’s price slump is due to outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), Hayes dismisses this claim, stating that when considering the inflows into newly listed spot Bitcoin ETFs, there is actually a net inflow of $820 million. However, he suggests that the possible non-renewal of the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP), a US government initiative, could be influencing investor sentiment.
The decision regarding the BTFP renewal is expected on March 12, and Hayes anticipates that Bitcoin’s price will continue to decline until then. However, he believes that the trend will reverse after the decision is disclosed, leading to a rise in Bitcoin’s price. Hayes predicts that as the stock market experiences a downturn due to a mini financial crisis in March, Bitcoin will surge, as it will anticipate rate cuts and money printing actions by the US Federal Reserve.
While Hayes offers a short-term bearish outlook, he also provides long-term projections for Bitcoin’s price. He confidently predicts that by the end of 2024, Bitcoin could reach $70,000, fueled by decreasing interest rates, the crypto halving event, and the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs. He describes this period as the start of the real bull market. Moreover, Hayes envisions Bitcoin soaring to a range between $750,000 and $1 million by 2026.
It is worth noting that other analysts have also made optimistic projections for Bitcoin’s price. Analytics firm Messari expects Bitcoin to reach $600,000 by the year-end, while VanEck predicts $275,000 and ETC Group anticipates $100,000.
In conclusion, Arthur Hayes foresees a short-term decline in Bitcoin’s price but remains bullish in the long run, expecting significant growth and reaching new all-time highs in the coming years.