Key Reasons Why Bitcoin Not At $100,000 Yet from Capriole Investments Founder
Crypto analyst and founder of the Capriole Investments fund, Charles Edwards, has shared his insights on why Bitcoin has not reached the $100,000 mark yet. Despite the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs, the price surge has not materialized. Edwards highlighted several key factors that he believes are hindering Bitcoin’s growth.
Firstly, Edwards pointed out that Bitcoin is only up 50% since the SEC greenlighted the ETFs in January. Many are wondering why the price has not surged higher. Currently, Bitcoin trades slightly above $71,000.
One major factor holding back Bitcoin’s rise, according to Edwards, is the selling pressure from long-term holders. The number of long-term Bitcoin-holding wallets has decreased from the all-time high of 57% in December 2023 to 54% currently. Although a mere 3% drop, this still accounts for 630,000 BTC, which is 300% of the total BTC supply that the US Bitcoin ETFs have bought since January.
The second factor is the impact of the halving event. In April, Bitcoin’s daily issuance dropped by 50%, but the market has not fully experienced its true effects yet. Edwards expects the gap between ETFs purchasing Bitcoin and mined BTC to widen over the next year. Financial institutions need time to evaluate and allocate funds for Bitcoin, making spot ETFs the likely leaders in BTC purchasing for this year.
In conclusion, Edwards believes that three drivers are crucial for Bitcoin to experience a significant rise: higher average daily ETF buying, lower long-term holder selling, and growth in US liquidity. These factors will play a role in propelling Bitcoin towards the anticipated $100,000 level.