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The U.S. is preparing for a “soft recession”: highlights from the FOMC minutes

  • Regulator confirmed plans to raise rates further in 2023
  • And did not rule out that it would continue that tactic in 2024
  • With a slight slowdown in the economy by year’s end

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released the minutes of its June 13-14 meeting. Recall that during the last meeting, Fed members decided to leave interest rates unchanged after a succession of hikes.

While we know the outcome of the meeting, the minutes provide more information about the mood within the Fed. It records each member’s position, discussion and plans for future action.</nbsp;

Some of the highlights of the FOMC minutes:

  • At the June meeting, nearly all members were in favor of keeping rates the same.
  • From 18 private members, 16 officials noted in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) that additional rate increases would be appropriate in 2023.
  • Regulator expects a moderate recession later this year. A gradual recovery will follow.
  • FOMC expects core inflation to decline next year, but not reach the desired 2% level.

The CME FedWatch tool currently gives an 88.7% probability that the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 bps at its next meeting on July 26;

So, the target rate could rise to 5.25% to 5.50% at the next meeting. This could affect the price of bitcoin, which has been showing good momentum over the past few weeks.

This could affect the price of bitcoin, which has been showing good momentum over the past few weeks.