On April 20, one of the most highly anticipated events in the crypto industry took place: the fourth halving occurred on the Bitcoin network. Miners’ reward for mining a block decreased from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC. However, there is a belief that this time the impact of the halving on the price may be more modest compared to previous halvings. Let’s examine how investors are currently behaving.
Investors are continuing to add to their wallets. An on-chain metric that tracks the balance of assets on exchanges reveals that investors have been focused on accumulating Bitcoin for the past few months. This accumulation trend continued over the weekend, with investors purchasing 9,000 BTC worth almost $600 million.
The halving event over the weekend was one of the key factors contributing to this accumulation. It is traditionally believed that a reduction in supply should drive the price higher, and such expectations led to the replenishment of BTC wallets.
The Bitcoin supply on exchanges has been consistently decreasing. This can be seen from data sourced from Glassnode. Furthermore, exponential moving averages (EMA) indicate the potential for price growth. A potential golden cross, which has not been observed in the past two months, is forming as the 50-day and 200-day EMA approach a cross on the four-hour chart. A golden cross is considered a signal of a potential uptrend.
As of now, the price of Bitcoin is around $66,000. The current optimism among investors could push the price of BTC higher. However, in order to recover above the key $70,000 level, the price needs to establish $66,900 as support. If this happens, the asset can eventually break through the $68,500 resistance level and reach $70,000.
On the other hand, there is a probability that investors may begin selling. This is indicated by a divergence between the price and daily number of active addresses (DAA). Divergence occurs when the price of a cryptocurrency and its DAA move in opposite directions, suggesting a potential discrepancy between market valuation and network usage.
A sell signal is triggered when the price rises and the number of active addresses decreases. If investors begin selling to lock in profits, Bitcoin could face downward pressure and lose support at $63,724, potentially falling to $61,000. In such a scenario, the bullish outlook would no longer hold.
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