In recent weeks, the price of the Ripple project token (XRP) has failed to break above the critical resistance level of $0.50. The Ripple whales are trying to contain the bears, but the XRP exchange rate remains at risk of a potential pullback.
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XRP whales seek to ease bearish pressure
While the XRP price trend remains neutral, a cohort of whales have begun applying bullish pressure behind the scenes. According to Santiment , between July 2-6, XRP whales holding between 10 million and 100 million XRP added 280 million coins to their wallets.
XRP and whale balances. Source: Santiment
Since the price of XRP at the time of writing is about $0.47, the value of a fresh investment in the asset is equal to about $131 million. With this sudden influx of funds in less than a week, the “bull whales” may be desperately trying to fend off the risk of a major correction in the XRP price.
Retail user activity is falling
While the whales are building up bullish pressure, XRP retail marketers appear to be losing interest in the coin. According to onchain data, intraday user activity on the XRP network has declined significantly this week.
The XRP network’s intraday user activity has declined significantly this week.
The graph below shows that there were 128,110 active addresses on the XRP Ledger network on July 5 (7-day count). That’s down 85% from the recent high of 867,820 a week ago, on June 29.
XRP and Active Addresses. Source: Santiment
The average 7-day Active Address Metric (7d) measures changes in user activity by summing the total number of addresses that have transacted online over a seven-day period.
When it falls, it is a bearish signal that fewer market participants are making transactions. Given this decline in transaction activity, XRP could have trouble attracting enough demand to get the price out of its current neutral state.
Ripple forecast: threat of prolonged stagnation around $0.46
The Ripple network’s chip data is currently giving conflicting signals, promising prolonged stagnation around the $0.46 mark. The Market-Value to Realized-Value (MVRV) ratio, which shows the coin’s market to realized value, confirms that prediction.
The chart below shows that most investors who have bought XRP in the last 30 days have had a 2% loss. Given the neutral market sentiment, most would likely prefer to wait for a breakout of the $0.49 breakeven level before starting to sell.
In the meantime, most would prefer to wait for a breakout of the $0.49 breakeven level before starting to sell.
If XRP breaks through that wall of selling, the next level of resistance could be $0.52.
XRP exchange rate and indicator MVRV. Source: Santiment
That said, the bears are likely to resist, trying to push the price towards $0.40. The bulls, on their part, will try to hold the price above $0.45 in order to avoid losses of more than 5%. If they are not strong enough, the price of XRP could fall to $0.40.
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