For the last seven trading days, the XRP rate has mostly stalled around $0.52, and on-chain metrics promise the coin an early loss of $0.50 support.
The native token of the famous Ripple project (XRP) was on the rise in March in a number of on-chain indicators, including the growth of popularity in social networks.
On March 29, the price updated this year’s high.
However, in April the situation changed, and now on-chain indicators already suggest that the bears may soon take control of the situation.
Network Growth in Freefall
Despite the recent price increase, the XRP network has not been able to succeed in attracting new users over the past week..
According to Santiment, if at the end of March Ripple updated a local maximum for the number of new addresses created on the network, then since then the figure has been steadily falling..
During the period from March 29 to April 17, this on-chain indicator sank by 70%, from 3360 to 995.
As a rule, a steady decline in this indicator in the face of rising prices promises a correction to the coin..
The current behavior of the whales also speaks in favor of the bearish scenario.. During the last week, these large network participants began to take profits..
Addresses holding between 10 million and 100 million XRP have been selling coins since April 12, according to Santiment.
As the chart below shows, between April 12 and April 17, whales sold 370 million coins worth about $185 million (at a rate of about $0.50).
When influential members of the community begin to get rid of such a large number of coins in such a short time, this can adversely affect the mood of other investors, including potential ones.
XRP Forecast: Possible Fall to $0.48
Bulls have been fiercely defending the $0.50 support level, but Santiment’s Market-Value to Realized-Value (MVRV) indicator suggests this level could be breached soon..
The MVRV on-chain indicator calculates the ratio of the market and realized value of a coin. Values above one indicate a higher market capitalization.
As the current situation shows, the majority of hodlers who bought XRP in the last 30 days are now in the profit zone (about 4%).
Based on the Santiment chart, they may continue to sell until the price hits the $0.49 area (which is about a 1% loss).
If this level is broken, XRP could drop even more, to $0.45 (6% loss). However, here the bulls can come into play and cause a rebound as soon as the hodlers cut their losses.
Meanwhile, the bulls are activated in case the price breaks above $0.55. Here, many hodlers may want to take profits (8%), which will contain the rally..
However, if XRP breaks this barrier, it could hit a one-year high in the $0.60 area.