Coinbase Eyes World Cup Prediction Market Upside as Crypto Derivatives Expand
Coinbase could get a real lift from the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Bernstein estimates the tournament may bring $5 billion to $10 billion in added prediction market activity, and Coinbase is in position to catch part of that flow. My take: calling this a sports side bet misses the point. It is a live test of whether crypto platforms can turn a global public event into a tradable habit, and whether that habit shows up in COIN’s revenue.
Bernstein’s research report, published Thursday, says the larger World Cup could add more than $3 billion in sports betting handle. The sharper number for crypto investors is the expected billions in prediction market volume tied to 104 matches across the month long tournament. Coinbase already has a prediction market business that reached more than $100 million in annualized revenue by March, only months after launch. Early, yes. Meaningless, no. FIFA expects about 6 billion people to follow the tournament, up from roughly 5 billion viewers in 2022. That is not just a bigger audience. It is a bigger pool of people who may be willing to trade around a match outcome instead of only watching it.
The timing helps too. Bernstein notes that the tournament falls during a usually slow stretch for online sports betting. Why does this matter? Because a slow betting calendar gives prediction market platforms like Coinbase a cleaner shot at pulling in users without fighting as much noise from other major sports cycles. For crypto, this is the kind of adoption signal I actually care about: people using a product because the event is interesting, not because someone gave them a blockchain sermon. If mainstream users start trading event contracts through crypto linked platforms, custody and digital asset infrastructure start to feel less abstract. That is how habits form.
Most crypto adoption stories lean too hard on infrastructure. That is only half right. Infrastructure matters, but users usually show up for a specific reason: a price move, a match, a headline, a bet they think they understand. The 2026 FIFA World Cup gives Coinbase 104 separate moments to test whether prediction markets can become that reason. Short window. Big signal.
Coinbase entered prediction markets earlier this year through a partnership with Kalshi, giving users in all 50 U.S. states access to contracts tied to sports and politics. Culture and other events sit in the mix too. The move sits alongside a much bigger push into derivatives. On June 11, Coinbase secured approval to give U.S. users access to global crypto perpetual futures. CEO Brian Armstrong said that makes Coinbase the first U.S. platform to connect customers with global crypto perpetual futures liquidity. That matters because crypto derivatives have spent years moving offshore while U.S. rules stayed messy. Bringing some of that liquidity back through a regulated route gives Coinbase a stronger pitch to U.S. traders. The approved setup will connect U.S. customers to liquidity through Deribit, the derivatives exchange Coinbase bought for $2.9 billion earlier this year.
Coinbase is also working on “Coinbase for Agents,” a platform that lets AI systems handle financial tasks through user accounts. A user could authorize an agent tied to models like ChatGPT or Claude to watch markets, manage positions, rebalance portfolios, or place trades under preset rules. For now, the focus is crypto transactions, but Coinbase plans to add stocks and prediction markets later. I’ll be honest: this is the part that makes me pause. Automated agents trading event markets could make complex strategies easier for normal users. They could also tempt people to hand off judgment they should probably keep. Both things can be true.
Counter to the usual advice, more automation is not automatically better here. Is this overkill? For a casual World Cup trader, maybe. For active users juggling crypto positions, perpetual futures, and prediction contracts, maybe not. The uncomfortable part is that better tools can increase useful liquidity and bad decision speed at the same time. We tried. It broke. That is how a lot of consumer trading products feel when automation outruns user understanding.
The broader data points the same way. An April report from Bitget Wallet and Polymarket said monthly prediction market trading volume was nearing $26 billion, with retail traders making up more than 80% of participants. Sports accounted for more than 39% of total prediction market volume in March, the biggest category on many platforms. Coinbase is not walking into an empty market. Competition is coming too. Bernstein expects Robinhood to benefit from the World Cup as it launches Rothera, its CFTC licensed prediction market exchange, and forecasts about $586 million in Robinhood prediction market revenue in 2026. More competition could squeeze Coinbase’s share. It also makes the category harder to dismiss. Regulators may be opening the door as well: the CFTC recently released draft rules saying sports event contracts are generally not contrary to the public interest, even though federal law treats them as gaming products.
What this means
The World Cup could move prediction markets from a niche crypto adjacent product into something a much wider audience tries, maybe for the first time. For COIN investors, the appeal is blunt: more revenue sources beyond spot trading. Spot volumes can be ugly when markets cool off. Prediction markets and derivatives give Coinbase more ways to earn when users are still active but not just buying Bitcoin or Ethereum. Yes, this slightly contradicts the cautious note above about automation. Bear with me. The business case can be attractive even if the product design needs guardrails.
If this works, Coinbase starts to look less like a plain crypto exchange and more like a financial platform built around trading different kinds of risk. That sounds grand, but the proof will be boring: volume, revenue, repeat usage, and whether users come back after the tournament ends. My bias is to watch the repeat usage number hardest. One event can spike charts. Habits pay bills.
Investors should watch COIN’s prediction market volume and derivatives trading numbers over the next few quarters. The cleanest markers are annualized revenue from prediction markets and growth in users trading perpetual futures. The next obvious event is the run-up to the 2026 FIFA World Cup, but CFTC updates on event contracts could move expectations before then. Robinhood’s Rothera launch also matters. Competition can expand the market, but it can also take share. AI agents are the longer term wild card, especially if users start letting software trade these markets for them.
FAQ
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets users trade contracts tied to future outcomes, including sports results and elections. Economic data can be traded this way too.
How much revenue is Coinbase’s prediction market business generating?
Coinbase’s prediction market business reached more than $100 million in annualized revenue by March, only months after launch, according to the article.
What is the estimated impact of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on prediction markets?
Bernstein estimates the 2026 FIFA World Cup could add $5 billion to $10 billion in prediction market activity, along with more than $3 billion in extra sports betting handle.
Has Coinbase received regulatory approval for crypto derivatives?
Yes. On June 11, Coinbase secured approval to offer U.S. users access to global crypto perpetual futures. CEO Brian Armstrong said Coinbase is the first U.S. platform to connect customers with global crypto perpetual futures liquidity.
What is “Coinbase for Agents”?
“Coinbase for Agents” lets AI systems such as ChatGPT and Claude carry out financial tasks through user accounts. Those tasks can include watching markets, managing positions, and placing trades under preset rules.
What percentage of prediction market volume is attributed to sports?
An April report from Bitget Wallet and Polymarket said sports made up more than 39% of total prediction market volume in March, making it the largest category on many platforms.
Is Robinhood entering the prediction market space?
Yes. Bernstein expects Robinhood to launch Rothera, its CFTC licensed prediction market exchange, and forecasts roughly $586 million in Robinhood prediction market revenue in 2026.
What is the regulatory stance on sports event contracts in the U.S.?
The CFTC recently released draft rules saying sports event contracts are generally not contrary to the public interest, even though federal law classifies them as gaming products.