Bitcoin miners have always sold into halvings, but the question arises, is this time different? With the next halving just around the corner, it’s worth examining how miners are behaving this time.
According to on-chain data, Bitcoin miners historically sell their holdings during halving events. The halving, which occurs approximately every four years, slashes the block rewards miners receive for solving blocks by half. Given that miners primarily rely on block rewards to cover their operational costs, the revenue reduction from halvings significantly impacts their profitability.
To gauge the selling pressure exerted by miners, many analysts use the Miner to Exchange Flow metric. This metric tracks the amount of Bitcoin moving from miner-associated addresses to centralized exchange wallets. As miners typically deposit their Bitcoin on these platforms for selling, this flow provides insight into their selling behavior.
Looking at the 30-day moving average of the Miner to Exchange Flow, the chart shows a steep decline in recent days. However, during the 2020 halving, the metric had surged to high levels, indicating significant selling pressure from miners.
Interestingly, this time around, there hasn’t been a noticeable increase in selling pressure despite the halving being just around the corner. One possibility is that miners may have already completed their selling in advance, as exchange inflows from this group spiked in February. If this is true, it could potentially benefit the market in the short term.
The price of Bitcoin, currently trading around $63,500, has been relatively stagnant lately, moving sideways within a range.
As the Bitcoin halving approaches, the behavior of miners will be closely monitored to see if this time is indeed different. Only time will tell how miners will react to the upcoming halving and its impact on the Bitcoin market.