US Election May Influence Bitcoin Price – Analyst Predicts Potential Movement
Bitcoin options traders are anticipating a potential surge in price after the US presidential election on November 5th, says Arbelos Markets CEO Joshua Lim.
Lim noticed that there has been a noticeable rise in traders purchasing call options that expire after the election, particularly in the $70,000 to $80,000 strike price range.
“It was a combination of systematic month-end selling by yield seekers and a ‘sharpening’ trend to sell pre-election options and buy cheaper post-election calls,” stated Lim. The trading strategy implies that traders are anticipating a positive breakout for bitcoin, despite the current uncertainty in global markets. “I see an increase in calls in the $70,000-$80,000 range and calls above $100,000 due to implied volatility expectations after the election results,” Lim explained.
Lim claims that Bitcoin has become both a hedge against inflation and a potential indicator of the US presidential election outcome, particularly if former President Donald Trump secures a victory. “The options market is pricing in a 7% move on US election day, which is slightly low compared to BTC’s beta to risk assets,” Lim added.
In terms of blockchain-based prediction markets, Trump’s probability of winning has significantly grown. On Polymarket, Trump’s chances of victory currently stand at 60.3%, while Vice President Kamala Harris’s odds are 39.6%.
Lim also highlighted the declining put-call volume ratio in BTC options, suggesting an evident increase in activity focused on call options.
*This should not be considered as investment advice.