Bitcoin closed above $50 thousand.
Weekly timeframe shows BTC rising since early 2023. The upward movement accelerated in October and took the price to a high of $49,050 in January 2024.
Bitcoin then fell, testing the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level as resistance (red icon) and falling to $38,500.
Then the coin began to recover and formed four weekly bullish candles. This rally culminated last week’s close at $52,900, the highest intraweek close since 2021.
Source: TradingView
However, despite the bullish price dynamics, the weekly relative strength index (RSI) is giving negative signals. Although it is rising, it has formed a bearish divergence, which often precedes bearish trend reversals.
What analysts say
Cryptocurrency traders and analysts on Platform X are positive about the prospects for Bitcoin.
CryptoMichNL believes that the price will reach $100 thousand. before halving. CrediBULL Crypto suggests that the price may retest $50k and then move higher:
“In fact, I still think we have a good chance of testing it even if we go to local highs first. Ideally we can form a nice range between the new local highs and the green zone. This would be great for opening/building positions.”
BTC/USDT hourly chart. Source: X
Matthew Hyland noted that this is the first time that the BTC price before halving closed above the long-term 0.618 Fib resistance level.
BTC forecast: where is the local top
The 12-hour time frame supports growth. The price action on this chart shows Bitcoin trading above the 1.27 Fib level of the outer retracement of the previous $51,800 decline, which is now expected to provide price support.
This bullish movement is also supported by the RSI index, which has formed a hidden bullish divergence (green) and is growing.
Finally, Elliott wave analysis suggests that BTC may make another high before a correction.
The most likely scenario suggests that Bitcoin is in the third wave of a five-wave upward movement (white color). The sub-wave analysis is shown in black and shows that the price is in the fifth and final sub-wave.
The most likely level for the top of the upward movement is $56 thousand. (Fibo resistance level 1.61 external correction of the previous decline). This is almost 7% higher than the current price. After this, the BTC price may correct as part of the fourth wave.
Source: TradingView
Despite the bullish outlook, Bitcoin’s failure to close above the $52,350 resistance area will end the third wave. This would result in an 8% drop to immediate support at $49k.
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