Bitcoin (BTC): when to wait for the end of the unprecedented bear market

Bitcoin (BTC) has been declining from its all-time high for a year now. At the same time, the question of the likely reaching of the bottom remains open Since the end of 2018, the BTC rate has been growing, remaining above the ascending support line. A one-year-long decline from renewed historical highs again led the world's main cryptocurrency in November 2022 to this line, passing near $15,479. BTC in 2023 and beyond , forming a minimum. At the same time, the weekly RSI left the oversold zone and gave bullish divergence signals (green line). Note that bullish divergence signals on the weekly chart are very rare. However, the RSI index has not yet broken through the bearish divergence trend line (black line). The further direction of the trend can be determined depending on which of these two trend lines is broken first. Source: TradingView If the BTC rate does not break through the ascending support line, it may start to grow in the new year. In the event of a bearish breakout, Bitcoin could go to test the previous horizontal support and the long-term upward support line around $12,000 (dotted line). Unprecedented bear market While technical indicators are not yet bullish, the crypto market cyclicality hypothesis due to BTC halving frequency suggests that the bottom will be reached soon. Historically, this happened 517-547 days before the halving. Meanwhile, the next halving is only 491 days away. Note that if Bitcoin does not close above $19,422 on January 1, 2023, this will be the first time in history that all four quarterly candles in a row turned out to be bearish.. And it seems absolutely possible, since there are only three days left before the quarter closes.. Thus, the current bear market is unparalleled in the history of cryptocurrencies. In addition, the bear market of 2013-2015. took 410 days to bottom after pullback from all-time high. It took 363 days for the 2017-2018 market. If we assume that BTC bottomed in November 2022, this would mean that the bear market lasted 364 days. If the bottom is still not formed, then the current bear market is 413 days long.. Then it becomes the longest bear market in the history of bitcoin. Source: TradingView However, there are also positive aspects. If we evaluate the losses incurred as a percentage, then in 2014/2015. BTC rate collapsed by 86%, in 2018 – by 83%. Now the drawdown of the price from the historical maximum is only 77%. Previously, the editors of BeInCrypto collected the opinions of experts and their forecasts for the rates of Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple for 2023. Disclaimer All information contained on our website is published on the principles of good faith and objectivity, as well as for informational purposes only.. The reader is solely responsible for any actions taken by him on the basis of information received on our website.