Bitcoin
In two weeks, the rate of the first cryptocurrency increased by almost 10% and reached $46,000. The growth of Bitcoin began almost immediately after the New Year – already on January 2, the coin rewrote the highs of 2023, reaching $45,922. Moreover, on January 11, the price of BTC exceeded $49,000.
Source: tradingview.com
The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) was the most important news for the crypto community in the first days of January.
11 exchange-traded funds have received the green light: Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, iShares Bitcoin Trust, Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund, ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF, Bitwise Bitcoin ETF, Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF, Valkyrie Bitcoin Fund, VanEck Bitcoin Trust, Franklin Bitcoin ETF, WisdomTree Bitcoin Fund and Hashdex Bitcoin Futures ETF.
Trading of these exchange-traded funds began yesterday, January 11. However, the picture that emerged was far from ideal: initially all funds were opened at a certain price, then they grew seriously and then collapsed. Below is an example of the Valkyrie Bitcoin Fund trading chart.
Source: tradingview.com
The Bitcoin rate also did not show rapid growth – after reaching $49,000, the price began to fall, and the growth did not occur immediately after the approval of spot ETFs. At the same time, according to the analytical platform CryptoQuant, the volume of bitcoin trading on the Coinbase over-the-counter market showed the second result in history, reaching $7.7 billion.
Technically, the bullish trend continues in Bitcoin. A recent update to a local high, price being above the 200-day moving average (in blue), and an RSI reading above 50 but not in the overbought zone are factors that confirm the rise of BTC. The resistance level is the January 11 high of $49,048, the resistance level is the 2023 peak of $44,729.
Source: tradingview.com
The fear and greed index is higher than a week ago (68), but not two weeks ago (72). Its current value is 71, which indicates the predominance of greed over fear.
Ethereum
Ethereum started the year with a bang: in the first 12 days of 2024, the second largest cryptocurrency by capitalization not only crossed the $2,500 mark, but also exceeded $2,600. Almost all of the growth occurred in the second week, while there was a lull in the first. In total, during this period, ether increased in price by more than 13%.
Source: tradingview.com
The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs has sparked a lot of speculation that the launch of exchange-traded funds for Ethereum is just around the corner.. Some analysts believe that this event will not have to wait that long. For example, the co-founder of the research company Reflexivity Research, Will Clemente, expressed the opinion that this will happen as early as May 2024:
“The deadline that everyone was engrossed in has just expired. May 23 is the deadline for a decision on the VanEck Ether Spot ETF.”
Nate Geraci, president of the financial company The ETF Store, also asked about the approval of cellular exchange-traded funds on Ethereum:
“Okay, we're done with Bitcoin spot ETFs.. When will it come to spot Ether ETFs?”
Interestingly, ChatGPT has already made its predictions about how the approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds will affect the price of the second largest cryptocurrency by capitalization. Although the neural network acknowledges the difficulty of predicting the exact range, in the most likely scenario, the value of ETH will be between $5,000 and $7,000. In other words, ChatGPT predicts growth of 2-2.6 times. However, in a bullish scenario the range is $8,000-$10,000. This is equivalent to an increase of 3-3.85 times relative to the mid-January 2024 price.
But analyst Michael van de Poppe predicted the growth of Ethereum back on January 9. In his opinion, sales in the ETH/BTC pair should have started first, forming a liquidation candle. However, there would be no continuation. Ethereum, according to the analyst, would begin to grow, and this would be confirmed by a bullish divergence on the weekly chart.
From a technical analysis point of view, the coin is in a bullish trend. If you look at the weekly chart that Van de Popp referred to, the so-called pullback candle was not observed. The 50-week moving average (in orange) and 200-week moving average (in blue) have recently formed a golden cross (the first crossed the second upward), which is a bullish signal. A rise to the resistance level around $3,600 is quite likely, with support being the 2023 high of $2,447.2.
Source: tradingview.com
Ripple
Unlike BTC and ETH, Ripple's performance in 2024 is negative. Although the coin began to grow on January 8, adding more than 10%, on January 3 the price of XRP dropped to $0.504, which was the minimum since October 19, 2023. In general, in the first two weeks of this year the coin lost about 4%.
Source: tradingview.com
ETF euphoria did not spare Ripple either. Some already believe that the approval of spot exchange-traded funds for XRP is on the horizon. One of the supporters of this idea is Valkyrie manager Steven McClurg.. He said on Bloomberg TV:
“I even think we might see something for Ripple given recent progress. Have you noticed that Grayscale has added Ripple to one of its publicly traded funds?. So, it wouldn’t surprise me if we see spot ETFs on Ripple or Ethereum.”
Important news was that Ripple Labs is going to make a buyback of $285 million. This measure is aimed at covering taxes as well as costs associated with the conversion of restricted stock into common stock.. The company's CEO Brad Garlinghouse said that such events will be ongoing, which will create liquidity for investors. At the same time, Ripple Labs has no plans to go public yet due to regulatory uncertainty.
Technically, Ripple looks less preferable compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum. The price is below the 50-day moving average (in orange) and the RSI indicator is below 50. Both of these factors are rather bearish in nature. It will be possible to talk about a change in Ripple’s trend only after breaking through the resistance level around $0.75. Support level is $0.504.
Source: tradingview.com
Thus, the approval and subsequent launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs caused the growth of Ethereum and Ripple, but Bitcoin is stagnant. Now the crypto community is waiting for the emergence of spot exchange-traded funds for other cryptocurrencies.
This material and the information contained herein do not constitute individual or other investment advice. The opinion of the editors may not coincide with the opinions of the author, analytical portals and experts.