Bitcoin Price Outlook: BTC Retest of $68,500 Could Confirm Conclusion of Pullback Period Ahead of Halving
Bitcoin (BTC) has seen a pullback in price, with expectations that it will bottom out around $67,711 before potentially continuing its upward trend. The fourth halving, scheduled in approximately 21 days, is a significant factor influencing market sentiment. While trading volumes remain low after the Easter holiday, retail investors are positioning themselves ahead of the event.
During the early hours of the US session, Bitcoin experienced a significant drop, resulting in nearly $250 million in total liquidations across the market. This sell-off occurs as the halving approaches, typically leading to a rally in markets due to FOMO and the “buy the rumor” mindset.
Miners are also taking deliberate actions, as evidenced by the skyrocketing BTC hash rate. This indicates an increase in the total computational power used for Bitcoin mining, suggesting greater participation in the network.
According to Jim Cramer, host of CNBC’s Mad Money, sellers currently have an advantage over buyers, indicating a potentially bearish momentum for BTC. However, it is crucial to note that the recent dip on April 1 breached the March 27 lows below $68,500, and it is now up to the bulls to maintain support above this level.
Looking ahead, if there is a reversal, the market could potentially reach $73,500, the next significant resistance level before reclaiming the previous peak of $73,777. Additionally, a bullish region between $74,000 and $75,000 could emerge. Alternatively, if BTC falls below $68,500, it could signal a short-term bearish trend, possibly pushing the price down to $63,500. This would provide a buying opportunity for investors before the halving.
Technical indicators suggest that the downward trend may continue until BTC tests the midline of the market range at $67,711, coinciding with the 50% Fibonacci placeholder. In an extreme scenario, BTC could hover around the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $67,307.
The Awesome Oscillator (AO) histograms are dropping towards the zero line, indicating falling momentum, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also declining, further supporting the weakening bullish trend. Additionally, the volume indicator is dwindling, suggesting a loss of market strength.
On the flip side, if the bulls regain control, BTC could overcome resistance at the 50-day SMA of $69,565. Further gains could lead to BTC surpassing the $69,000 threshold. A candlestick close above this level would encourage more bullish activity, potentially pushing the price to $73,500 and beyond, reclaiming the all-time high of $73,777. This move, representing an 8% increase, could set the stage for BTC to surpass $74,000. A four-hour close above the range high would be the first step towards achieving this milestone.