Nansen analysts recently shared their predictions for 2024, specifically focusing on Bitcoin and cryptocurrency prices. While Bitcoin currently sits above $45,000, the analysts believe that the price will continue to rise. They stated that there is a higher probability that cryptocurrency prices will remain positive in 2024.
The analysts outlined three possible scenarios for the future of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. The first scenario, which they believe is the most likely, is a “Soft Landing”. This scenario predicts that inflation will fall to 2% without an increase in unemployment rates. If this occurs, Bitcoin could reach its previous all-time high or experience a 20% to 50% increase.
The second scenario is the re-acceleration of inflation. While the market does not currently expect this scenario, if it were to happen, Bitcoin may revisit the lowest levels seen in 2021-2022. The probability of this scenario occurring is estimated to be between 10-20%.
The third scenario is a recession, which the analysts deem unlikely but still worth considering. In the event of a recession, there could be a 60% decrease in Bitcoin prices.
The analysts also noted that the Chinese economy, geopolitical conflicts like the Ukraine conflict, and the US Presidential elections could impact these scenarios.
Additionally, Nansen analysts predict that 2024 will be the year of decentralized exchanges (DEXs). They expect interest in DEXs to gradually increase, causing leading centralized exchanges (CEXs) like Binance to lose market share while regulated CEXs like Coinbase continue to gain market share.
It’s important to note that these predictions are not investment advice.