This Is Where We Stand in the Bitcoin Cycle Based on Historical Data
Lead Glassnode analyst James Check recently shared a chart comparing Bitcoin’s price movement over the past three years to previous Bitcoin cycles after reaching their respective all-time highs. According to Check, the current Bitcoin cycle is in a similar position to where it was in December 2020. Around that time, Bitcoin had just surpassed its all-time high of $19,600 from December 2017, and within a few months, it skyrocketed to $64,000. Similarly, Bitcoin is now approximately 35 months after reaching its peak in April 2021, and it has risen to a high of $74,000 in March 2024. There was even a minor pullback last week as long-term holders took profits, which is reminiscent of previous cycles. Check explained that he chose April as the starting point for measuring recovery duration because it’s when bear market sentiment typically sets in. Glassnode has previously stated that April 2021 was Bitcoin’s peak in terms of on-chain behavior, as long-term holders began selling their coins in large volumes. Check has noted the ongoing selloff this year, with long-term holders distributing coins at a rate of 257,000 BTC per month. However, despite these developments, the analyst remains confident in the market, referring to it as one of the most robust bull markets in history. He predicts that Bitcoin will reach $250,000 per coin by the end of this current bull cycle. On Monday, Bitcoin’s price increased by over 4% to surpass $70,000, recovering from a previous pullback. Notably, outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) continued on Monday, totaling $350 million.