Despite the recent bearish breakout, investors in Avalanche (AVAX) are determined to turn this resistance into support and are unwilling to accept losses.
The bullish sentiment among AVAX holders is evident, as there has been a movement of coins from small and medium-term holders to long-term holders. This shift indicates increased confidence in the project, as long-term holders tend to hold their investments for at least a year.
Over the last three weeks, long-term holders have accumulated over 4% of the circulating supply, resulting in a wallet size increase of 4.2 million AVAX worth $161 million. The total number of tokens held by long-term holders now stands at 20.72 million AVAX.
Avalanche supply distribution. Source: IntoTheBlock
This data demonstrates that despite the price drop, Avalanche holders have not given in to bearish sentiment and remain hopeful for a recovery.
Additionally, the MACD indicator, which is used to identify changes in momentum and potential trend reversals, is showing signs of strengthening bullish sentiment. At present, the MACD is forming a bullish crossover with a green bar on the histogram. This is the first instance of such an occurrence in a month and could indicate the start of a potential rally.
MACD indicator. Source: TradingView
AVAX forecast: is growth on the horizon?
With Avalanche’s current price nearing $40 and considering the observed bullish sentiment, further upward movement is possible. The next challenge for AVAX lies at $44, and a successful breakthrough could lead to further increases towards $48 – $50, where the lower boundary of the ascending channel is located.
1-day chart AVAX/USDT. Source: TradingView
This surge would represent a 20+% increase for Avalanche, assuming continued support from investors.
However, if the altcoin fails to break through the $44 resistance, it could experience a decline towards $33. The loss of this support level would invalidate the bullish scenario and potentially result in a further price drop to $29 or $27.
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