Bitcoin Miner Reserves Rise 1% Under Pressure: A Bullish Divergence?
Bitcoin miner reserves rose 1% this week while operating costs climbed and the network hash rate fell. More than 224 $BTC flowed in on a net basis. The divergence is real. Most market guides say squeezed miners sell. That is only half right: traders still have to determine whether miners expect better prices or are merely delaying sales.
Bitcoin [$BTC] has traded near $65,000 after gaining more than 3% in 24 hours. Meanwhile, miners have begun shifting resources into AI infrastructure, and Bitcoin’s hash rate has declined. Why does this matter? Because hash rate measures the computing power securing the network. My take: the drop deserves attention, but not panic. The more useful question is blunt—does conventional Bitcoin mining still pay, and what happens to $BTC if more operators decide it does not?
Revenue is already tight. The Puell Multiple, which compares miners’ daily revenue with its historical average, has dropped below 1 to 0.71, leaving it just above the range where miners have often accumulated Bitcoin despite thin margins. Hash Ribbons have produced another capitulation band as hash rate retreats from its peak. The rate fell from 1,106,922,137 TH/s last November to 995,460,294 TH/s. Mining difficulty is down 5% to 127.17T, roughly 17% below the 148.26T recorded at the start of the year. That gives the miners still operating a little room to breathe. Then there is the outlier: one solo miner recently found a block and collected 3.1382 $BTC, worth about $200,000. With only 1 TH/s of computing power, the estimated odds were once every 16,000 years. I’ll be honest: absurdly lucky.
CryptoQuant’s reserve-flow data shows miners adding Bitcoin anyway. Inflows have edged above outflows, lifting holdings to 1.1943 million $BTC, worth about $76.76 billion. That equals a 1% weekly increase and a net gain of more than 224 $BTC. Some traders will call that evidence miners consider Bitcoin undervalued. I would not go that far. One week of modest inflows cannot reveal what every miner thinks. Still, this is not nothing. They are holding coins while profitability sits at 0.71. Miners often sell during lean periods to cover electricity and equipment costs. Debt payments add another burden. Collectively, they are not selling right now. Institutional demand could explain it; economic uncertainty could, too. Reserve data confirms neither theory.
Miner wallets still hold plenty of Bitcoin, and widespread selling has not begun. The risk comes later, if those reserves reach the market. If holdings fall while the Puell Multiple remains depressed, forced sales could pressure $BTC. For now, the 1% reserve increase has postponed that possibility. Bitcoin has also climbed above the neckline of an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern, which technical traders may treat as bullish if the breakout holds. Is that enough by itself? No. A price near $65,000 while miners contend with lower revenue is encouraging, but calling miners the market’s best-informed participants is a stretch. Counter to the usual “follow the smart money” advice, holding does not automatically signal conviction. Treasury schedules may dictate the decision. Hedges or financing terms could do the same. Reserve totals do not tell us which.
What this means
Miner accumulation during a financially difficult period is mildly bullish. It proves nothing alone. The odd part is easy to see: profitability is at 0.71, hash rate has fallen from 1,106,922,137 TH/s to 995,460,294 TH/s, and miners still added more than 224 $BTC to reserves. If demand grows while those coins remain off the market, the smaller available supply could support a higher Bitcoin price. But let’s not oversell it. A 1% reserve increase is nowhere near a supply shock. The argument becomes more convincing only if accumulation continues and buyers remain active.
Watch the next move closely. Keep an eye on how $BTC trades around $65,000 and the neckline of the inverted head-and-shoulders pattern. If price stays above that area while miner reserves grow beyond 1.1943 million $BTC, the bullish case gains credibility. A move back below it would damage the setup, especially if miners begin selling. New Puell Multiple and Hash Ribbons readings should show whether conditions are improving or miners are sliding into deeper capitulation. I care most about the reserve flows here. If the more than 224 $BTC net inflow reverses, the market may have to absorb miner sales just as the latest price recovery begins running out of steam.