Chinese analyst sees Bitcoin’s next resistance around $64K to $70K
Bitcoin has bounced. Not enough, at least not yet. Murphy, a Chinese crypto analyst, is still calling the move a “weak rebound” rather than a recovery. His near term target sits around $64,000 to $68,000, based on on chain data and options positioning. My take: BTC may have a little more upside, but the next few thousand dollars are where the trade gets messy.
Murphy is focused on what happens after this recent push higher, not just the bounce itself. In his view, $70,000 is the rough ceiling for a short term rebound while the market is still in bear mode. That level lines up with the realized price for short term holders, or STH-RP. Traders love acronyms. Occasionally they earn their keep. For holders who bought less than one month ago or less than three months ago, the average buy price is packed into the $64,000 to $68,000 range. Why does this matter? Because if BTC gets back there, underwater buyers suddenly get a clean exit at breakeven or with a small profit. Some will take it. I would.
Most bounce commentary treats resistance like a single wall. That’s only half right. Murphy is describing more of a cycle: breakout, resistance, pullback, then another attempt. Annoying, yes. Also normal. A bottom usually does not form because everyone wakes up bullish on the same morning. It forms when sellers get worn down over time. Each move into the $64,000 to $68,000 area can flush out another batch of short term holders. If buyers keep absorbing that supply anyway, the setup improves. I’ll be honest: this is the boring part of market structure, but it is often the part that matters. Bitcoin is still trading around the same macro worries as other risk assets, including interest rates, inflation, and the general mood in financial markets.
Murphy breaks the recovery map into three levels. $64,000 comes first. $68,000 comes next. Both sit inside the cost basis zone for short term holders, so both can act as resistance. The bigger test is $70,000, where the STH-RP sits. In on chain analysis, that line is often used as a rough bull or bear marker. Counter to the usual advice, a wick above $70,000 would not prove much by itself. A clean break above it would make the rebound look much healthier. Murphy’s base case is still a move into $64,000 to $68,000, not a clean escape. If Bitcoin jumps above $70,000 and holds there, he would read that as a “strong rebound.” That distinction matters if you are trying to separate real momentum from another bear market bounce.
The options market gives Murphy another reason to stay cautious. Market makers are sitting in positive Gamma around $62,000, which can keep price swings more contained near that level as they hedge. If Bitcoin moves higher, the next positive Gamma area appears around $66,000 to $68,000. That lines up almost too neatly with the short term holder cost zone. Is that overkill? For this setup, no. The same band shows up in on chain cost basis and options positioning, so the $64,000 to $68,000 area deserves attention. I would not treat it as destiny. I would not ignore it either.
What this means
Bitcoin’s bounce is better than another drop, but it is heading straight into traffic. Short term holders bought heavily between $64,000 and $68,000, while $70,000 carries psychological weight plus on chain importance. Yes, this sounds cautiously bullish and bearish at the same time. That’s the point. BTC may chop around, reject, or consolidate before it can move higher. A rally through this zone needs real buying because it has to absorb sellers who are happy just to get their money back.
Watch $64,000 and $68,000 first. Then watch $70,000. A clean move above $70,000, especially with strong volume, would support Murphy’s “strong rebound” scenario. Repeated failures there would point to more sideways trading or another leg down. My read: STH-RP and options Gamma positioning are not magic signals, but they are useful checks against price-only excitement. They can show whether the move has real support or is mostly noise.