Ethereum Price: August, September Could Bring Fresh Weakness
What comes next for Ethereum (ETH)? Benjamin Cowen’s answer isn’t comforting: August and September could bring fresh weakness for ETH and the wider altcoin market. His case rests on earlier market cycles, plus pressure from interest rates. My take: after the sharp swings traders have already endured, this warning deserves attention. Don’t dismiss it.
Ethereum is trading near $1,900, and Cowen doesn’t sound confident about the next few months. July has sometimes offered relief, particularly during US midterm election years. But relief isn’t recovery. In 2018 and 2022, prices dropped in May and June, bounced in July, then surrendered those gains during August and September. Most cycle-based arguments treat repetition as evidence. That’s only half right. Two examples hardly establish a rule, though I’ll be honest: I still wouldn’t shrug them off.
Previous price charts aren’t Cowen’s only concern. Interest rates could also cause trouble. Another hike in September or October—or mounting fear that one is coming—may trigger more selling across altcoins as cautious investors pull money from speculative assets. Why does this matter? Because public interest in crypto is already subdued. Cowen says social engagement is near its 2018 level and assigns it a social risk score of 0.25. In my view, that’s the uncomfortable part: if prices fall, there may not be enough enthusiastic buyers waiting to step in.
Cowen isn’t predicting an 80% collapse in ETH. Still, he believes the next correction could be worse than the one in 2022. If Ethereum fell 40% from its current $1,800 to $2,000 range, it would return to earlier lows. Bitcoin, meanwhile, has spent the time moving sideways and trying to find support. That leaves ETH and other altcoins exposed. The setup is awkward.
Ethereum has performed better than much of the altcoin market. It formed a “higher low”; some other coins shed as much as 80% of their value. Reassuring? Up to a point. Counter to the usual advice, relative strength isn’t necessarily protection when investors start selling risky assets across the market. ETH can outperform its peers and still fall hard.
“July has historically been a good month for crypto. However, looking at years like 2018 and 2022, we see that the rallies in July, following the declines in May and June, were reversed in August and September.”
Cowen expects the roughest period to fall between August and October. The number to watch is $1,800. If ETH remains above that price through September or October, traders may start to believe the worst is over. If not, the bearish case gets easier to make. Yes, that sounds more cautious than the relative-strength point above—bear with me. Both can be true. For now, the market looks fragile, and Cowen doesn’t expect a sustained bull run before next year.
What this means
Ethereum could face sharper price swings and another decline over the coming months. The 2018 and 2022 pattern looks unfavorable. Investor attention remains thin; concern about a September or October rate hike may push more money out of altcoins. Cowen’s estimate of a 40% pullback is one possible outcome, not a forecast carved in stone. My take: traders should still prepare for a retest of earlier lows. Keep position sizes sensible. This isn’t the time to ignore the downside.
Watch the Federal Reserve as September and October draw closer, particularly if officials suggest that another rate increase is possible. Then watch Ethereum near $1,800. Is that one price level enough to settle the argument? No—but a firm defense by buyers could calm the market, while a sustained break below it would make another selloff easier to imagine. Social engagement deserves attention too. If it rises from Cowen’s 0.25 social risk score and people begin paying attention again, sentiment may be shifting. By autumn, we should have a clearer idea whether ETH can avoid the path it followed in 2018 and 2022.