Is Solana still worth buying in 2026? VirtualBacon says wait
Solana’s move to $82 has traders hunting for an entry. VirtualBacon is not joining them. I’ll be honest: this is the kind of setup that looks clean on a chart and ugly in a portfolio two weeks later. The crypto analyst says SOL already looks “too expensive” to him at this price. His view is simple. Leave Solana alone until Bitcoin bottoms. The number he is watching is $53,000. If BTC gets there, altcoins probably get cheaper too.
His analysis this week comes down to one blunt point: Bitcoin sets the pace. Yes, that sounds obvious. It is also the part traders keep ignoring when altcoins start moving. Most guides talk as if strong altcoins can detach from Bitcoin. That’s only half right. VirtualBacon says that is the trap. “Altcoins do not lead the bull run, Bitcoin leads,” he says. In his view, you need to know where Bitcoin is in its cycle before putting money into riskier coins.
The Bitcoin levels he cares about are the 200-week moving average, around $62,000, and the Realized Price, near $53,000. If BTC slides toward those areas, he thinks the market will offer better long term entries. Why does this matter? Because Bitcoin weakness usually turns into heavier altcoin weakness, not a neat little dip. That hurts if you already bought. It helps if you waited.
VirtualBacon does not leave much room for interpretation. “Before Bitcoin becomes cheap enough in your own analysis, you should not be buying Solana, and you should not be buying any other altcoin.” He goes further: “If Bitcoin gets to $53K, I am all in that because that’s extremely cheap in my analysis.” My take: the important word there is Bitcoin, not Solana. Watch Bitcoin first. Everything else can wait.
He also says Solana only makes sense if it can beat Bitcoin. Otherwise, you are taking extra risk without getting paid for it. He points to the SOL/BTC chart and the October 2025 market drop, when Bitcoin fell 54% from its peak while Solana dropped 76%. Roughly speaking, Solana fell about 1.4 times as much as Bitcoin. Counter to the usual altcoin-bull argument, that leverage cuts both ways. If that happens again and Bitcoin drops to about $53,500, he thinks SOL could fall to about $65.
At $80, he does not think Solana gives traders enough room. His upside target for the next bull market is around $290. Buying at $82 gives you about a 3.5x return if that target hits. Buying near $60 gives you about 4.7x. Is that gap really worth waiting for? With altcoins, yes. The downside is rougher, and timing mistakes get punished faster. A cheaper entry does not make the trade safe. It just gives you more room to be wrong.
His plan is plain: “Wait for Bitcoin to go to 53K, make a new low, and then wait for Solana to drop the 1.4x multiple on top of that, and then buy.” Boring? Yes. Still probably better than panic-buying a green candle. I know that sounds almost too cautious for crypto, but that is the point. He also tells investors not to expect the kind of huge returns Solana delivered in earlier cycles. “I don’t think there is a 10x to be had on Solana anymore,” he says. SOL bulls will not like that. They should still hear it.
What this means
VirtualBacon is making a Bitcoin-first argument, not writing off Solana altogether. The levels he is watching are $62,000 and $53,000, and he thinks those matter more than SOL’s current rally. Yes, this slightly contradicts the usual “buy strong coins early” advice. Bear with him. If Bitcoin breaks down toward those zones, altcoins could take a bigger hit, especially coins like Solana that tend to exaggerate Bitcoin’s moves. For traders, the uncomfortable part is simple: waiting may beat being early.
The levels are clear. Bitcoin near $62,000 comes first. Then $53,000 if the selloff gets worse. A clean break below those areas could drag the crypto market lower and create the cheaper entries VirtualBacon is waiting for. For Solana, his rough downside level is $65 if Bitcoin falls to around $53,500. The SOL/BTC ratio matters too. If it weakens while Bitcoin drops, that backs up his view that Solana is not ready to lead yet. One last note from me: rates and inflation still matter in the background, because crypto usually feels it when money leaves risk assets.