- Bloomberg Intelligence experts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffarth gave a new forecast for the cellular bitcoin-ETF.
- The probability of SEC approval of applications has jumped to 65%, they said. Further assessment of the situation depends on the outcome of the proceedings between the regulator and Grayscale.
Analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffarth believe the odds of approval of spot bitcoin-ETF applications in the U.S. have risen to 65%. At the beginning of the year, the probability of such an outcome was about 1%.
“Based on recent developments and new information, Eric Balchunas and I are officially increasing our chances of approval of a spot bitcoin-ETF to 65%. A couple of weeks ago the probability was around 50%, at the beginning of the year it was 1%,” the analyst said.
Seiffarth believes Grayscale’s possible court victory over the SEC will be the catalyst. And after that, the regulator will approve all applications.
He added that the BlackRock fund’s reapplication filing and the SSA agreement with Coinbase have fundamentally changed the perception of the situation. As a reminder, this deal involves the exchange of information between participants, including clearing information.
It is noteworthy that in late June, we covered a forecast from Bloomberg analysts. At the time, the probability of approval for a bitcoin-based spot exchange-traded product was about 50 percent.
BlackRock filed for ETF registration in mid-June 2023. Against that backdrop, trading volume jumped on Grayscale’s GBTC trust, which had earlier been denied a conversion of the product to an exchange-traded fund.
After BlackRock, at least seven other companies filed applications. The regulator initially wrapped them up, but then took them under consideration.
The regulator’s decision was made in the first place.