Biden’s Probability of Withdrawing from Presidential Race Increases to 68% following Covid Diagnosis
The likelihood of Joe Biden withdrawing from the U.S. presidential election is steadily rising, as indicated by traders on the prediction market platform, Polymarket.
Recent developments, including Biden’s diagnosis of Covid-19 and his statement about potentially withdrawing due to a medical condition, have influenced market sentiment.
Following his announcement, the chances of President Biden dropping out of the race reached 68%, approaching a record high of 70%, according to bets placed on Polymarket, which operates on a cryptocurrency-based system.
During an interview with BET News that aired recently, Biden expressed his willingness to reassess his candidacy if faced with a medical condition.
Biden was asked by BET’s Ed Gordon if there was any circumstance that would prompt him to reconsider his candidacy, to which Biden responded, “If I had some medical condition that emerged, if somebody, if doctors came to me and said, ‘You got this problem, that problem.'”
The odds of Biden withdrawing from the race experienced a significant surge after a debate with his Republican opponent, Donald Trump. His performance in the debate received widespread criticism from stakeholders and the media, causing the probability of him dropping out to increase from 36% to 70%.
Biden acknowledged his poor performance in the debate and attributed it to jet lag and an intense travel schedule.
However, following a public relations campaign emphasizing his suitability for the presidency and refutations from potential replacements, the likelihood of Biden dropping out declined by 34 percentage points, returning to 36%.
Nevertheless, the pattern repeated itself when long-time Democratic supporter George Clooney publicly suggested that Biden should step down. This led to a temporary surge in the “Yes” side of the drop-out contract to 66%, before eventually settling back in the 30s. The probability increased once again during the Republican National Convention and when Trump announced a popular running mate choice. Finally, Biden’s Covid diagnosis further boosted the chances of him withdrawing from the race.
Meanwhile, the likelihood of Biden dropping out before the Democratic convention officially confirms his nomination in August is also increasing, now standing at 59%.
According to Polymarket’s national election tracker, Trump currently holds a 64% probability of winning, while Biden’s chances are at 12%. Kamala Harris, Biden’s running mate, is assigned a 19% probability.