Biden’s Likelihood of Withdrawing Rises Again on Polymarket Before President’s Press Conference
Joe Biden’s chances of dropping out of the U.S. presidential race increased by approximately six percentage points on Thursday, reaching 65%, according to traders on Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market. This surge in probability occurred just prior to Biden’s first press conference in months, scheduled for the evening in the United States. Concerns surrounding Biden’s age and cognitive health have spurred numerous calls from prominent Democrats and donors, such as actor George Clooney, urging the president to step aside, despite his insistence on remaining in the race.
Simultaneously, Biden’s likelihood of becoming the Democratic nominee saw a 16-point decline on Thursday, bringing it down to 38%, based on another Polymarket contract. Additionally, a third contract on the prediction market reveals that Biden now has a 10% chance of winning the presidency, representing a four-point decrease for the day. Meanwhile, Vice President Kamala Harris holds 19% odds, while presumed Republican candidate Donald Trump stands at 61% on Polymarket.