Brandt Warns of Potential 75% Drop in Bitcoin Price
In his latest analysis, veteran trader Peter Brandt highlights the fact that Bitcoin (BTC) has not reached an all-time high (ATH) in over 30 weeks. This pattern has historically led to significant market declines, according to Brandt. Despite his generally bullish outlook for BTC, the analyst suggests that a drop of 75% could be on the horizon if Bitcoin fails to breach its ATH within 30 weeks.
Bitcoin reached its latest ATH above $73K in early March but has since been unable to surpass this level due to geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty. It is currently down 18% from the ATH. This week marks the 30th week since Bitcoin dropped from its ATH.
Brandt’s analysis indicates that Bitcoin may face further bearishness in the near future. The chart shows that BTC is hovering near its 8-week simple moving average (SMA) of $60,998. The failure to decisively break beyond this MA could signal weakness. Bitcoin has been trading within a tight range for several months, which Brandt sees as a consolidation phase preceding a downward move.
Additionally, Bitcoin has struggled to break above a long-term resistance trendline, despite multiple attempts to rally. The trading volume does not indicate strong conviction in either direction. If the 75% collapse predicted by Brandt occurs from the current price, Bitcoin could drop to $15K, levels last seen in Q4 2022.
However, veteran trader Mike Alfred disagrees with Brandt’s analysis, emphasizing that Bitcoin often defies technical analysis due to its unique position in the global financial system. Alfred believes that Bitcoin’s future remains bright as long as governments continue printing money and that it should not be evaluated solely on past patterns.
Brandt maintains his observations and reveals that Bitcoin is the largest asset in his personal portfolio, suggesting that his analysis is not meant to encourage shorting the market but to provide a realistic assessment. He had previously predicted that BTC could reach $150K in this cycle but acknowledges that market conditions can change. At present, Bitcoin is trading at $60,607, reflecting a 3.51% decrease this week.