Donald Trump continues to hold a lead over Kamala Harris on prediction platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi. On Polymarket, Trump’s probability of winning the election has risen to 58.9%, while Harris’ probability has dropped to 41.1%, giving Trump a lead of over 16 percentage points. The market volume for the Presidential Election Winner bet on Polymarket has reached over $3 billion.
Similarly, on Kalshi, Trump’s odds of victory are at 56.9% compared to Harris’ 43.1%. However, Kalshi also indicates that Harris is leading in two swing states, Michigan and Wisconsin.
In terms of other election outcomes, Kalshi shows an 80% probability of Republicans winning Senate elections and a 52% probability of Democrats winning the House. Early voting in the US has already reached 75 million voters, which is equivalent to half of all votes cast in the 2020 election. Among these early voters, 37.9% are registered as Democrats and 36.2% as Republicans.
It’s important to note that early voting schedules vary across different states and territories. In at least 9 states, over half of eligible voters have already cast their ballots. In the 2020 election, a total of 155 million American voters participated.