Why is XRP price up today?

The price of XRP (XRP) is up today, rising nearly 4.5% in the last 24 hours to a three-week high of $0.65. In result, it has outperformed the broader crypto market, whose returns in the last 24 hours came to be about 1%.

XRP/USD vs. crypto market cap’s four-hour price performance chart. Source: TradingView

Optimistic SEC. vs Ripple update

XRP’s price gains in the last 24 hours come amid anticipations about Ripple reducing its potential settlement costs in its pending lawsuit against the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Notably, the SEC and Ripple remain in a remedies-related discovery process over the latter’s $770 million worth of XRP sales to institution investors. Ripple aims to reduce potential settlement costs by more than 50%, citing the Morrison vs. National Australia Bank case.

JUST IN Rumours In The #XRPCommunity That #RippleVs #Sec Lawsuit Settlement In Next Few Days. Lawyer Says #Ripple Will Pay 140/160 Million Dollars To The #SEC #XRP pic.twitter.com/ANWhTDX54G

— XRP CAPTAIN (@UniverseTwenty) December 2, 2023

Using Morrison vs. NAB, Ripple can argue that the SEC’s jurisdiction does not extend to XRP sales made to non-U.S. investors. This is significant because a substantial portion of Ripple’s XRP sales were to institutional investors outside the U.S.

If Ripple can successfully argue that these sales fall outside the SEC’s jurisdiction, it could significantly reduce the scope of the SEC’s case and potentially the size of any penalty or settlement. This expectation has made XRP analysts bullish about the token.

Here’s an evidence @Ripple met with the @SECGovback in 2018.

What If… the SEC lawsuit is just a political theater and everything has been already decided behind the scenes ‼ï¸

I’m not selling my $XRP. pic.twitter.com/XI47saRgeJ

— EDO FARINA XRP (@edward_farina) December 4, 2023

XRP whale accumulation

XRP’s recent gains coincide with a strong accumulation period among its richest investors.

For instance, the XRP supply held by addresses with a balance of over 1 million tokens has increased by 20 million so far in December. The XRP price has risen by nearly 8.5% in the same period, indicating whales are positioning themselves for more upside in the future.

XRP supply in addresses with a balance of over 1 million tokens. Source: Messari/CoinShares

In particular, the supply among the top 100 XRP holders have increased recently, indicating they have been accumulating XRP at local highs.

XRP supply among 100 richest addresses. Source: Messari/CoinShares

Bitcoin’s crypto market share dwindles

Furthermore, XRP’s price gains in the last 24 hours are part of a broader altcoin market rebound against Bitcoin, the top cryptocurrency by market cap.

Interestingly, XRP’s market dominance has jumped nearly 5% in the last 24 hours, compared to the Bitcoin dominance’s 0.82% drop. Thus, many traders may have likely rotated capital from Bitcoin into in altcoins like XRP, whose upside potential in the short term appears attractive.

XRP dominance vs. Bitcoin dominance and XRP/BTC year-to-date performance chart. Source: TradingView

XRP price prediction

Nevertheless, technical indicators suggest that XRP’s market may be favor the bears in the near term.

Notably, as of Dec. 7, the cryptocurrency trades near a strong resistance confluence comprising its multi-month descending trendline and 0.618 Fibonacci retracement line near $0.68, as shown in the weekly chart below.

XRP/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

XRP’s price may climb toward its 0.5 Fib retracement line near $0.85 if it breaks above the resistance confluence mentioned above.

Related: XRP price bull flag hints at 20% rally by New Year’s

A decisive pullback from the confluence, however, risks sending XRP’s price to $0.56, the flipped resistance level of its previous ascending triangle pattern, by next month.

If the bears persist with a continued selloff, XRP price can drop further toward the $0.45-0.50 area in early 2024. This range coincides with XRP’s 50-week and 20-week exponential moving averages (EMA) and multi-year ascending trendline support.