Bitcoin (BTC) On-Chain Metrics Point to Final Surrender

We are looking at on-chain Bitcoin (BTC) supply indicators to determine what stage the bear market is in, whether the macro day has been reached, and how long the subsequent accumulation will last. Bitcoin supply metrics in profit and loss are currently at levels that historically correlate with the macro day.. However, they also suggest that the market is waiting for a long phase of accumulation, the signals of the end of which we do not see.. And the ratio between the two types of supply suggests that the BTC price may face another final capitulation. Bitcoin Supply in Profit The Circulating Supply in Profit metric tracks the number of coins whose price was below the current price during the last move.. Its all-time lows correlate with the BTC macro day. The volume of supply in profit gets higher in each market cycle as the supply of bitcoin increases due to the mining of new coins. During bull markets, almost all circulating supply is profitable. During bear markets, it steadily declines. If you combine all the historical lows of this metric, you get an ascending support line. Bullish Divergence Not Formed Yet During the previous two bear markets, we have formed a bullish divergence in profits from Bitcoin price and supply.. This is because the BTC macro day (green lines) did not correlate with a supply bottom in profit (blue lines). Source: Glassnode These events have historically been separated by an accumulation period. The two previous bear markets saw bullish divergence in 2015 and 2018-2019: 2015 January 14, 2015 – Profit supply – 5.420 million coins, BTC price – $172 August 24, 2015 – Profit supply – 5.254 million coins, BTC price – $211 2018-19 Dec 14, 2018 – Offer in profit – 6.960M coins, BTC price – $3,242 Feb 7, 2019 – Offer in profit – 6.834M coins, BTC price – $3,400 2022 Nov 28, 2022 – Offer in profit – 8.588 million coins, BTC price – $15,797 In the current bear market, neither BTC price nor supply in profit has yet made new lows. If a bullish divergence does not form, the most likely scenario would be to continue the accumulation phase or even fall to lower price levels. Bitcoin Supply at Loss The supply at loss metric measures the number of coins whose price was higher than the current price at the time of the last move. On the long-term chart of BTC price and supply at a loss, we see that successive bear markets led to new peaks of this metric.. On November 18, 2011, the peak was 4.344 million coins and correlated with the lower limit of the BTC price at $2.05. Four years later, on August 24, 2015, the peak was 9.280 million coins, and the price of bitcoin was $211.. Macro BTC in this cycle was reached in January 2015 at $172. Source: Glassnode The last peak was on February 7, 2019 – the price of bitcoin at that moment was $3,400. Interestingly, today's indicator readings are still lower than in 2019.. Bounce off support We noted earlier that rising supply at a loss correlates with BTC price declines, bearish cycles, and subsequent accumulation. If we draw uptrend lines for a supply at a loss, we will see at least three such patterns.. Two of them are clearly correlated with the bear markets of 2014-2015 and 2018-2019, and the third appeared after the local peak of the BTC price at $14,000 in June 2019. In all cases, the rebound from the ascending trend line (blue lines) correlated not so much with the end of the bear market as with the start of long-term accumulation.. Source: Glassnode A similar upward support line could be drawn for 2022 as well. However, we see that at the moment there are no signs of a rebound. Thus, even if the BTC macro bottom has already been reached, the trend will not change for several more months. Crossover Before Surrender Another trick you can do with supply metrics in P&L is to compare them against each other.. On the long-term chart of the 14-day moving averages (14D MAs), we see that in most periods, supply in profit (orange) outpaces supply in loss (blue). However, there are rare cases when these two lines intersect and supply at a loss briefly outpaces supply at a profit.. They occur around the macro bottom of the BTC price and subsequent accumulation (green areas). So far the curves have crossed four times. These moments corresponded to bear market lows in 2011, 2014-15, 2018-19 and 2022 (green areas). A brief touch of the curves was also recorded during the March 2020 COVID-19 crash (blue circle). Source: Glassnode It is worth noting that the final capitulation of the BTC price in all previous bear markets did not occur during their first crossing (red lines), but several days or weeks later. This is the first time the profit offer has fallen below the loss offer. Disclaimer All information contained on our website is published in good faith and objectively and for informational purposes only. The reader is solely responsible for any actions taken by him on the basis of information received on our website.