30-year analyst: Bitcoin’s comeback hinges on AI deflation and a macro shift
Jordi Visser, a macro investor with 30 years in markets, says Bitcoin was written off at the worst possible moment. My take: that is the part of his argument people will either love or dismiss immediately. In his latest broadcast, he said traders may be staring at the wrong signal. AI could push business costs lower. The Fed could sound less hawkish. And, if those two things line up, money could find its way back into crypto.
Visser, who writes VisserLabs on Substack, thinks crypto confidence has been knocked around badly. He said that if you asked 100 people who had never bought Bitcoin, all 100 would say they had no interest. Among people who already own it, he thinks 60% to 70% are questioning the trade. That is not mild doubt. “Losing hope” may even undersell it, in his view. Still, he sees “positive divergences” in the charts. Why does that matter? Because traders often look for price to stop falling before the mood improves. Plain English: the chart may be firming while sentiment is still ugly.
Bitcoin has fallen below its February lows, but it has not really broken down from there. Visser is not calling a win yet. Good. He wants BTC back above its 200-day moving average, which he says is now above $70,000. Until that happens, this is a setup, not proof. If Bitcoin clears that line, he thinks it could start a new phase for crypto and AI-linked trades.
Visser describes tech and AI stocks as being in a “mid-cycle slowdown.” Most guides frame the AI trade as simple: buy the infrastructure names, buy the chip makers, then wait. That is only half right. The first AI trade was obvious enough, with Micron and Nvidia doing the heavy lifting. Now that part looks harder. Prices are choppier, the easy money has already noticed the story, and investors who hate volatility may struggle to sit in those names for months. I’ll be honest: I would not treat this as a clean handoff from AI stocks to Bitcoin. But the logic is not silly. If tech stocks become harder to own and Bitcoin starts looking less chaotic by comparison, some capital may drift back into crypto.
On the macro side, Visser thinks the market is taking the Fed’s tough talk too literally. Counter to the usual advice, he is not just watching the next inflation print or the next Fed line. He argues that macro analysts are underrating how much AI could lower costs as agents move into ordinary business work. This is where the Bitcoin argument gets more technical: Fed policy still drives risk appetite, and risk appetite still drives a lot of crypto flows. If AI lifts productivity and eases inflation pressure, the Fed may have more room to hold rates steady or cut sooner than traders expect. Lower rates usually help Bitcoin, especially when liquidity improves. Risk comes back fast.
Visser points to insurance and healthcare as two places where AI could cut costs. Is this overkill for a Bitcoin thesis? No, because the Fed does not care whether a cost decline came from a chip, a software agent, or a boring back-office workflow. If those savings show up in the data, the Fed gets more breathing room. That is the core of his argument: AI is not only a stock market story. It could affect inflation, rates, payroll math, and the price people are willing to pay for digital assets. For crypto investors, that matters because Bitcoin has spent the past few years trading less like an outsider asset and more like a very sensitive macro trade.
What this means
Visser’s view is that the market may be staring at the wrong problem. Investors are still stuck on inflation, high rates, and bad crypto sentiment. Yes, this slightly contradicts the usual “watch price first” trader line — bear with me. Visser is watching for a turn where AI cost cuts make the Fed less aggressive and give risk assets room again. That does not make Bitcoin an automatic buy. It does make the current despair more interesting. When 60% to 70% of holders are second-guessing themselves, the trade can get crowded the other way too. I think that is the sharpest part of his case.
The level to watch is Bitcoin’s 200-day moving average, now above $70,000 by Visser’s count. A clean move above it would back up his chart argument and could bring momentum buyers back in. After that, the next clues come from Fed comments and inflation data. Watch, too, for any sign that policymakers are starting to talk about AI as something that can lower costs. Tech stocks matter, but not in a neat little package. If Nvidia, Micron, and other AI names stay jumpy, some institutions may look for another way to make the same broad bet. Bitcoin wants to be that outlet. Whether it gets the money is still an open question.