Bitwise, Tiger Research say Bitcoin bear market may be in its final quarter
Bitwise and Tiger Research both think Bitcoin’s bear market may be running out of road. Traders will care. My take: that does not make a “bottom” call investable by itself. Bitcoin briefly touched $62,200 on Binance on Thursday afternoon and traded around $61,400 afterward, up 2.49% on the day and 3.08% over the past week.
Tiger Research analysts said Thursday that they are “becoming more constructive on Bitcoin from a cycle perspective.” Their view is that Bitcoin has probably moved into the last stretch of the current bear market. “Our view is not that the exact bottom is already in, but that Bitcoin has likely entered the final quartile of the current bear-market process,” the analysts wrote. Most cycle notes imply the bottom is a neat line on a chart. That is only half right. Put more plainly: another sharp drop could still happen, but Tiger Research thinks the worst of the downside is starting to narrow. Cautious, not triumphant.
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan landed in a similar place, though he got there through Strategy (MSTR), not a clean Bitcoin-only chart. He pointed to Strategy’s decision to sell some of its Bitcoin holdings when needed. Hougan linked Bitcoin’s drop below $60,000 to the recent selloff in Strategy’s STRC preferred stock. STRC launched at a $100 par value with a 9% yield, and Strategy had promised to raise the rate by 0.25 to 0.50 percentage points whenever the price fell below par. Then Bitcoin and MSTR both fell. The setup got messy. The rate climbed to 11.5%, STRC dropped to $75, and the effective yield jumped to 15.4%. That is more than a routine wobble. It matters.
Strategy changed course on June 29. It said it would stop trying to hold STRC at $100 through automatic rate increases. STRC will trade freely instead, and Strategy may sell BTC from time to time to pay dividends or buy back STRC shares. Hougan called it practical: “The volatility in STRC is a natural and important part of the crypto cycle. I think we’re nearing the bottom.” I’ll be honest: I read the move less as panic and more as a company dealing with its balance sheet in public. Counter to the usual Bitcoin-treasury script, selling BTC is not automatically bearish here. Strategy is no longer just sitting on Bitcoin and shouting HODL. It is using BTC inside corporate finance, even when that means selling some.
The market read is pretty direct. Bitwise and Tiger Research are both less bearish, though neither is ruling out one last liquidation. Why does this matter? Because “less bearish” is not the same as “bull market confirmed.” The next upside case still depends on liquidity coming back, more institutional buying, Bitcoin holding onto its monetary premium story, and fewer forced sellers. That can sound abstract, but the mechanics are familiar: ETF demand, easier brokerage access, corporate treasury buyers, and markets that are not whipped around by retail sentiment alone. One public company selling Bitcoin strategically does not break the institutional case. If anything, it makes Bitcoin look more like a real treasury asset, awkward tradeoffs included.
What this means
Bitwise and Tiger Research are saying roughly the same thing: Bitcoin may be closer to the end of the bear market than the beginning. Maybe. BTC holding above $61,000 after the STRC mess suggests buyers are still around. Is that enough for a clean move higher? No. But the market looks less fragile than it did during the break below $60,000.
The level to watch is still $60,000. If Bitcoin loses that area and stays below it, Tiger Research’s final liquidation leg may already be starting. If it holds above $62,000 and starts pushing toward $65,000, the bottoming argument gets harder to dismiss. Yes, this slightly contradicts the caution above; bear-market endings are messy like that. Macro data matters too. Inflation reports and central bank comments will decide whether liquidity actually improves or people just keep talking about it. Corporate Bitcoin announcements are worth watching as well, especially if more companies start treating BTC as a working treasury asset instead of a trophy holding. Watch the flows.
FAQ
Q: What is a Bitcoin bear market?
A: A Bitcoin bear market is a period when Bitcoin keeps falling and investors become more cautious. Some sell into weakness; others simply stop adding exposure.
Q: Which research firms are saying Bitcoin’s bear market may be ending?
A: Bitwise and Tiger Research are the two firms saying Bitcoin may be in the final stage of its current bear market.
Q: What is Tiger Research’s view on the Bitcoin cycle?
A: Tiger Research says Bitcoin has likely entered the final quartile of the current bear-market process. In other words, downside risk may be fading, even if one more selloff is still possible.
Q: What did Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan cite as a bottom signal?
A: Hougan pointed to Strategy’s (MSTR) decision to sell Bitcoin when needed as one sign that the market may be near a bottom. My read: he is treating corporate treasury behavior as a cycle signal, not just a company-specific headline.
Q: How did Strategy’s STRC preferred stock affect Bitcoin’s price?
A: Hougan said the selloff in Strategy’s STRC preferred stock helped push Bitcoin below $60,000.
Q: What did Strategy do after the STRC volatility?
A: Strategy said it would stop defending STRC’s $100 price with automatic rate increases. It may also sell BTC to pay dividends or buy back STRC shares.
Q: What does Strategy selling BTC for operating needs suggest?
A: It suggests Strategy is treating Bitcoin as part of its treasury toolkit, not just as an asset to hold at any cost. That is a colder, more corporate version of the Bitcoin story.
Q: Why does institutional allocation matter for Bitcoin?
A: Larger institutional flows can change how Bitcoin trades. The market may become less dependent on retail sentiment and more tied to liquidity, fund flows, ETF demand, and corporate treasury decisions.
Q: What Bitcoin price level should investors watch?
A: The $60,000 level matters. A sustained move below it could mean the final liquidation leg is underway.
Q: What could affect the liquidity recovery mentioned by Tiger Research?
A: Inflation data and central bank commentary are the main things to watch. They will help determine whether broader market liquidity improves or stays tight.