Why Bitcoin’s split from record stock highs probably won’t last
Bitcoin has had a rough year. It is trading just under $62,000 and is more than 50% below its October peak, which looks odd while U.S. tech stocks keep running on AI enthusiasm. My take: the gap looks dramatic, but not mysterious. Hashdex and Charles Schwab think it is temporary. Their case is simple enough. Money is chasing the AI trade right now, while crypto may be sliding back into its old cycle.
BTC, still the largest cryptocurrency, has not kept pace with stocks at record highs. That has irritated plenty of crypto investors, and I get it. Bitcoin usually trades like a risk asset, so watching it lag tech during a rally feels wrong. Is Bitcoin suddenly broken? Probably not. Hashdex Chief Investment Officer Samir Kerbage says the weakness is less about crypto falling apart and more about where investors are looking. “Capital follows attention and narratives,” Kerbage wrote in a midyear market outlook. Right now, he said, that attention is on AI infrastructure, IPOs, and bets around interest rate expectations.
Kerbage thinks that rotation has hidden real progress in crypto. Banks, brokers, and payment companies have added more institutional plumbing. U.S. regulation also looks clearer than it did a year ago, with more changes possible if Congress passes the CLARITY Act this summer. I’ll be honest: the usage data is the harder part to dismiss. Stablecoin transaction volume in the first half of the year has already topped all of 2025. Tokenized real world assets are up more than 60% year to date. Hashdex also said crypto transactions reached records in the second quarter. Kerbage put it bluntly: “The gap between market capitalization and on-chain activity has never been wider.” Prices look tired. The networks do not.
Charles Schwab gets to nearly the same answer by starting somewhere else. Jim Ferraioli, Schwab’s director of digital currencies research and strategy, looked at Bitcoin’s older market cycles and found that this slow recovery still fits the post-halving pattern. Most ETF bulls argued the spot ETF era would change the four-year rhythm. That’s only half right. Maybe it still changes the next phase, but Glassnode and Schwab data as of 5/31/2026 show something familiar right now.
Ferraioli says Bitcoin has usually needed more than a year after bear-market lows to trade back above the production costs of less efficient miners. He puts that level around $95,000 today. The average investor’s cost basis is closer to $80,000, which matters because some holders may sell once they can get out even. Ferraioli is not treating the four-year cycle like a natural law. Good. Markets are too messy for that. But he does think the pattern now sits inside investor behavior. Why does this matter? Because the better framing may be less “Bitcoin is broken” and more “this recovery is taking longer than ETF bulls expected.”
What this means
Bitcoin’s weak showing beside hot equities looks more like an attention problem than a death sentence for crypto. AI is taking the oxygen. Tech is getting the bids. Counter to the usual advice, I would not look only at the BTC chart here. Crypto rails and network activity keep moving, especially in stablecoins and tokenized real world assets. If BTC is around $62,736.21, it is far below Schwab’s estimated $95,000 production cost marker for less efficient miners and still below the roughly $80,000 average investor cost basis.
The levels to watch are plain enough. Around $80,000, some investors who have been underwater may sell just to leave cleanly. Above $95,000, Bitcoin would be back over Ferraioli’s estimated cost level for less efficient miners, and the recovery would look much healthier. A cooler AI trade could help. So could more U.S. regulatory clarity, including the CLARITY Act if it passes this summer. Yes, this slightly contradicts the neat cycle story above; bear with me. I would also keep watching stablecoin volume and tokenized asset growth, because price can sulk for months while usage keeps building under it.
FAQ
Q: Why is Bitcoin underperforming stocks at record highs right now?
A: Hashdex CIO Samir Kerbage says investor money and attention are going to AI, IPOs, tech stocks, and rate expectations instead of crypto.
Q: Why might the gap between Bitcoin and stocks be temporary?
A: Hashdex points to more institutional plumbing, clearer U.S. regulation, higher stablecoin volume, and growth in tokenized real world assets.
Q: How do Bitcoin’s older cycles fit this market?
A: Charles Schwab’s Jim Ferraioli says Bitcoin’s slow recovery still resembles earlier post-halving periods, even after spot ETFs launched.
Q: Which Bitcoin price levels matter most?
A: Ferraioli puts the average investor cost basis near $80,000 and the production cost for less efficient miners around $95,000. Those are the main levels to watch.
Q: What would suggest money is moving back into crypto?
A: Watch for less excitement around the AI trade, more U.S. regulatory clarity, higher stablecoin transaction volume, and continued growth in tokenized real world assets.