Bitcoin’s bullish signals strengthen as data agreement reaches 79%
Bitcoin has taken a distinctly bullish turn. CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. says 79% of the readings in his model now agree, suggesting the recent bearish run may be ending. Why does this matter? Because if the signal holds, altcoins could follow, and institutional investors may start looking at crypto again. I’ll be honest: it’s still a big “if.”
The model has rated Bitcoin’s trend as bullish for two weeks running. Its market health score was -42.9 on June 26, then rose to +34.7 and stayed positive for over 80% of the next week. That matters. Higher prices aren’t guaranteed, but this looks sturdier than a bounce that disappears within a day or two.
By July 10, the score had climbed to +65.3. Buyers, in plain terms, had wrestled control from sellers. Adler also found that 79.4% of the model’s smaller indicators agreed, compared with a monthly average of 57.3%. The 22.1-point gap is hard to shrug off. Readings moving together are less likely to be random noise. My take: that improves the signal, but Bitcoin has made fools of confident models before.
The economic backdrop isn’t nearly as clear. The Federal Reserve’s rate policy and persistent inflation continue to pressure Bitcoin and similar assets, even as Bitcoin’s own market data improves. Most bullish readings are treated as if they can overpower macro conditions. That’s only half right. Investors may see the current resilience as a reason to buy BTC while stocks and other rate-sensitive assets struggle, but claims that Bitcoin consistently delivers returns unrelated to other markets remain disputed. It is still too early to call it a dependable hedge.
Fed policy could still alter the picture. A pause or softer approach later this year might draw money away from traditional assets and toward Bitcoin. Holding above $30,000 could bring institutional investors back, as better economic conditions did in early 2023. Is one quick jump over $30,000 enough? No. A run of strong weekly closes would be much harder to dismiss.
A steadier Bitcoin market could also reassure corporate buyers. Some governments and businesses have considered adding digital assets to reserves or corporate treasuries, and a sustained rise makes that decision easier to defend before boards and regulators. Still, counter to the usual adoption narrative, a rising price alone does not settle the risk question. MicroStrategy, meanwhile, has continued buying Bitcoin through downturns. Its strategy clearly doesn’t hinge on one bullish signal.
Most public companies won’t copy MicroStrategy just because a model has turned green. A lasting move above resistance near $32,000 could at least put the subject back on the agenda. Companies might then view Bitcoin as a treasury asset instead of a quick trade. I wouldn’t call that mass adoption. Not even close. It would show only that balance-sheet use has begun moving beyond a few unusually determined buyers.
What this means
With 79.4% of its sub-indicators in agreement, CryptoQuant’s model points to an upward trend that could last. Buyers appear to have control for now rather than merely enjoying a short-lived rally. Traders looking beyond daily price swings may read this as evidence that Bitcoin could test $32,000, with $35,000 as the next possible target in the coming weeks. My read? “Possible” is doing plenty of work there.
The next batch of data will tell us more. Specifically, the market formation score needs to clear +50 again. Agreement between indicators should also remain above 80%. Yes, that caution cuts against the bullish case above, but both conditions matter. If the score drops below zero and consensus falls under 40%, the current bullish setup is finished. No ambiguity there.
Weekly closes near $30,000 matter more than a brief intraday spike. Why wait for CryptoQuant’s late-July updates? Because they should reveal whether the model is holding together or coming apart. For now, I think the numbers favor buyers. This is Bitcoin, though. It can turn fast.