Rare monthly Ethereum buy signal flashes, but ETF outflows cloud bullish case
Ethereum just printed a rare monthly buy signal. Nice. I still would not get too comfortable with it. ETH is up 8.05% over the past week and 4.9% in the last 24 hours, but spot ETF flows have been negative since June 17, 2026. Total outflows are now -$358.3 million. My take: that is not a little wobble. Buyers may like the bounce. They are still not rushing to commit.
The bigger chart still looks bruised. ETH lost two major support levels in 2026, first near $3.2k and then near $2.0k. It now trades around $1.5k. AMBCrypto reported heavy bearish positioning, while also noting the risk of a short squeeze. Most bullish writeups would stop at the squeeze risk. That is only half right. The ETF data says money is still leaving the product while price tries to claw back ground.
This is the awkward part. Crypto can rip in the short term even when the wider setup looks ugly. It happens all the time. But ETH ETF outflows are not just background noise. Why does this matter? Because they show how investors are treating a regulated Ethereum product right now. When -$358.3 million leaves spot ETFs since June 17, 2026, confidence looks weak in the near term. That cuts against the usual “institutions are coming” story that follows ETF launches. New wrapper, same hesitation.
The technical picture is not all bad. CryptoQuant data shows the taker buy-sell ratio moved back above 1 in the past couple of days, and the 7-day moving average also climbed above 1. In plain English, buyers in the perpetual swap market have been more aggressive. That helps explain the recent move. Open Interest has ticked up too, so speculators are paying attention again. This can fuel a short squeeze fast, especially if crowded shorts start closing positions. Here is where I would be careful: if Open Interest starts fading, the bounce probably came from shorts unwinding instead of fresh demand. That distinction matters.
Then there is the monthly signal. Analyst Ali Martinez said on X that July opened with a TD Sequential buy signal on Ethereum’s monthly chart. For longer term investors, that is hard to ignore. The same signal appeared in September 2022 and March 2025, before ETH rallied 235% and 182%. Big numbers. Maybe too big to brush off. Counter to the usual advice, I would not treat the signal as a clean green light. The uncomfortable question remains: do you trust the old signal, or do you respect the money leaving ETH ETFs right now?
Glassnode adds another layer. Ethereum’s MVRV extreme deviation pricing bands put the -1.0σ level, one standard deviation below the all-time MVRV mean, at $1,549. That level is acting as support. So yes, the chart has a possible floor. The monthly TD Sequential signal backs that up. But the ETF outflows make the bottom call feel messy. I’ll be honest: I would call it a setup, not a verdict.
What this means
ETH is giving mixed signals, and that usually means chop. The taker buy ratio points to short term speculative demand. Rising Open Interest adds fuel. A short squeeze is still possible. At the same time, the -$358.3 million in spot ETF outflows since June 17, 2026, is a real problem for the bull case. If bigger buyers were convinced, flows would probably look better by now. For the moment, derivatives traders look more eager than ETF investors. That is not nothing.
Traders should watch Open Interest closely. Is this overkill? No, because it separates a real bid from a positioning squeeze. If Open Interest slows or rolls over, the bounce may be mostly short covering instead of real demand. For investors, $1,549 matters because it lines up with the -1.0σ MVRV support band. A clean break below that level would make the downside risk harder to ignore. Yes, this sounds cautious after a monthly buy signal. That is the point. If the monthly TD Sequential signal works again, ETH could still stage a large rally, but it first has to push through the bearish tone in ETF flows. The next ETF flow reports matter. A return to inflows would make the buy signal much easier to believe.