Bitcoin (BTC) is showing solid bullishness on long-term timeframes, although short-term trend direction remains less certain
The results of the technical analysis of the daily timeframe show that bitcoin is giving conflicting signals.
On the one hand, BTC made a bullish breakout of the $24,800 resistance area, and then on March 24 updated the current high of the year, reaching $29,380.
In addition, the daily RSI made a bullish breakout of the bearish divergence trend line (green line) and turned it into support.
However, at the same time, the price formed a “double top” pattern (red icons), accompanied by long upper wicks. At the same time, new bearish divergence signals for RSI appeared on the chart (red line).
Such conflicting signals make it impossible to determine whether BTC will rise to the next resistance at $31,800 or sink to the $24,800 support area.
Meanwhile, the longer weekly timeframe continues to maintain a strong bullish tone. Here, the BTC price broke through the line of long-term downward resistance, built from the historical maximum.
Then, following the week of March 6-13, the market tested this level as support, forming a long lower wick (green icon) and a bullish engulfing candle next week. Finally, the weekly RSI broke above 50 (black icon) for the first time since June 2021.
As a result, the weekly chart sees BTC rising towards the long-term resistance in the $31,500 area, located near the shorter-term resistance of $31,800.
On the other hand, a weekly close below $24,600 will reverse this bullish outlook.. In this case, the market may sink in the direction of $20,000.
Bitcoin Forecast for April Still Uncertain. The main reason for this is the wave analysis and the previously highlighted bearish divergence in RSI.
According to the wave analysis results, BTC has completed the formation of a five-wave bullish structure (white color).
In this pattern, wave 5 is extended (white), and its length is the sum of the lengths of waves 1 and 3. If the growth has already been completed, then we can expect a significant correction further..
Bearish divergence signals on the 12-hour RSI (green line) also speak in favor of this option.
In this case, the price may fall to the Fibo level of 0.382 correction at $24,065, passing near the long-term support area.
However, if the daily RSI manages to make a bullish break of the bearish divergence trendline, it could trigger price pumping and cancel the BTC bearish scenario for April, driving a rally towards $32,000.
Thus, the long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains bullish, but the direction of the short-term trend is less clear..
The vector of its movement may be determined depending on whether the price can renew this year’s highs or rebound from current levels.