There are currently no signs on any of the timeframes indicating that the BTC price will be able to recapture these levels.
YouTube feed
.
Long-term resistance is holding back gains
According to the results of the technical analysis of the weekly chart, the picture on BTC looks bearish. The main reason for this is the price bounce from the $30,500 resistance area and subsequent decline (red icon). This rebound also resulted in a long upper wick, which is considered a sign of bearish pressure.
Last week, bitcoin once again confirmed the $30,500 area as resistance (green line). A trend is considered bearish until the BTC price breaks out of it. If that happens, we can expect a 30% upside to the next resistance at $38,400. However, a continuation of the decline could set up a 14% drop to near-term support at $25,200.
Bitcoin’s decline has ended.
In the meantime, onchain data suggests that the accumulation phase of bitcoin by institutional investors has ended.
Source: TradingView
The weekly RSI is bearish. This momentum indicator is above 50, but it has formed a bearish divergence (green line below) and is declining.
.
Bearish divergence occurs when rising price is combined with weakening momentum. It often precedes bearish trend reversals. The divergence is particularly important when it forms on a long weekly timeframe.
BTC forecast: will we see a breakout of resistance
Like the weekly timeframe, the daily chart also reflects a bearish outlook. First, the daily RSI formed a bearish divergence (green line). As stated earlier, this is considered a bearish sign, reinforced by the fact that the divergence trendline remains unbroken.
Secondly, price is trading below the $29,800 minor resistance area, from which two bounces have occurred so far (red icons). This area is also very close to the long-term resistance of $30,500.
The most likely outlook for BTC is therefore for the price to decline towards the 0.5 retracement Fibo support level, which is a drop of almost 4% from the current price. It remains to be seen whether it will become a temporary support level before declining to the long-term support level of $25,250 or act as a springboard for a bullish trend reversal.
Source: TradingView
Despite this bearish outlook, BTC moving beyond the $29,800 and $30,500 resistance areas would signal that the trend has turned bullish. In this case, the most likely outlook would be for the price to rise 30% to the next resistance at $38,400.