Bitcoin’s bear market echoes 2018 as altcoins come under pressure again
Analyst Benjamin Cowen says Bitcoin’s current path looks a lot like the 2018 bear market, and altcoins may “melt away” as traders back away from risk. I’ll be honest: this is the part of the cycle where people overtalk the rebound and undertalk the damage underneath. Cowen is not making a loose chart rhyme here. If his read is close, Bitcoin and the rest of crypto could spend months chopping sideways or bleeding lower. Big altcoin bags deserve a cold look now, not after another 20% move against BTC.
Cowen says Bitcoin’s 2026 structure looks like a quieter version of 2018, while the mood feels more like the tired market of 2019 and 2020. The comparison is specific enough to take seriously. Bitcoin made a local low in February 2018 and, according to Cowen, did the same in February 2026. Both runs then printed a higher low around late March and early April. May brought a rejection at the resistance band, then a lower peak. By late June and early July, Cowen says the February lows had been swept. Traders call that a liquidity cleanup. Plain English: stops got run, then the market looked for its next excuse.
That late June and early July sweep matters because it fits a market with weak liquidity. Why does this matter? Because crypto does not usually rally hard on vibes alone. The Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening and higher interest rates have kept pressure on global liquidity, making speculative assets less attractive. Crypto needs spare cash. It needs risk appetite too. Right now, neither looks especially convincing. Cowen thinks Bitcoin could bounce in July and retest the resistance band in late July or early August, but he also warns that similar moves have often faded in August and September. My take: a July bounce would not prove the bear market is over. It may just be a bounce in a market still short on fuel.
Cowen’s harshest warning is for altcoins. He points back to 2018, when Bitcoin held support while the altcoin market “melted away.” Most guides treat Bitcoin strength as good news for everything else. That’s only half right. In July 2018, Bitcoin recovered from its June low and held the $6,000 area until November. Altcoins did not get the same relief. Cowen says today’s setup has the same problem: “risk appetite remains low in the current period and that money is not flowing into altcoins.” That sentence should bother altcoin holders. When traders get defensive, money tends to crowd into Bitcoin first. Smaller coins need excitement, liquidity, fresh buyers, and patience. They often get none of those in a late bear market. Bitcoin can stabilize while altcoins keep losing ground against BTC for weeks or months.
Cowen expects the 2018 comparison to stop working later this year, with a possible bottom arriving earlier than it did in 2018. Yes, this slightly cuts against the neat 2018 map. Bear with me. In 2018, Bitcoin’s final bear market low came in December. This time, Cowen says the cycle peak came earlier, in October, so the bottom could also come earlier, maybe in late September or early October. He adds that Bitcoin is still stuck between the 200-week moving average and the bear market resistance band. In his view, one more move down may be needed to reset on-chain data before a new bull run can begin. Ugly, but believable. I would rather see one final flush than a weak rally everyone mistakes for a new cycle.
What this means
Cowen’s read points to a long, rough stretch for altcoins, even if Bitcoin manages to find a floor. Is this overkill if Bitcoin bounces first? No. Weak risk appetite and thin capital flows mean a Bitcoin rally may do very little for the rest of the market. Investors heavy in altcoins should be ready for continued weakness against Bitcoin, plus the possibility of deeper losses in dollar terms. For now, the market looks more interested in Bitcoin’s relative safety than in chasing smaller speculative coins. Skip the victory lap.
Watch Bitcoin’s reaction around the 200-week moving average and the bear market resistance band. Counter to the usual advice, the cleanest signal may not be the first bounce. It may be what happens after that bounce fails or holds. A clean break lower, especially a final washout in late September or early October, could mark the real bottom if Cowen’s timeline holds. Macro liquidity still matters. Central bank policy and liquidity conditions matter because risk appetite will not return just because crypto traders want it to. For Bitcoin, Cowen’s main reference points are still the 2018 $6,000 support area, the possible resistance-band retest in late July or early August, and the risk of another reversal in August or September.