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The expert began her dollar forecast by explaining the ruble’s devaluation in June. According to Alina Bazhulina, one of the significant reasons for the weakening of the ruble is the budget rule, which should reduce the impact of commodity prices on the country’s economy.
“It is important that the budget revenues do not fall, but grow, which is possible with the rising oil price and high dollar/ruble exchange rate,” said our interlocutor.
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Alina Bazhulina pointed out that each loosening/strengthening cycle has boundaries. In the current cycle, in her opinion, some kind of ceiling has already been reached.
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“There is no point in the ruble to the dollar or euro to adjust further, for example, to 100-120, because with the restrictions that are and will be, it affects final consumers, inflation, curbing which is one of the main objectives of the Bank of Russia and the government,” Alina Bazhulina said, adding that in the near future in the pair dollar / ruble may turn around.
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USD/RUB exchange rate. Source: TradingView
<Among the factors of possible ruble strengthening our interlocutor named the possibility of Russia's complete disconnection from SWIFT. If this happens, the expert believes, there will simply be no need for such currencies as the euro, the dollar, as there will be no possibility of cross-border settlements.
“Friendly states practically all of them have already converted settlements into national currencies.. And in the case of such events [complete disconnection of Russia from SWIFT], the [currency] rate is likely to be made fixed,” this is how Alina Bazhulina summed up her forecast of the dollar rate for July 2023.
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We would like to remind you that earlier the BeInCrypto editorial staff collected bitcoin forecasts for the end of the year in one review.