XRP’s $0.70 Plunge Threat: Regulatory Clarity or Bitcoin’s Fate?
Friday’s selloff hit XRP hard. The token has now retraced 22% over the past 30 days and dropped below $1.10 for the first time since November 2024. So the live question is not abstract anymore: does XRP catch a bid here, or does it keep sliding toward $0.70? My take: $0.70 sounds extreme until you look at the chart without squinting.
The chart looks weak. Very weak. Sam Daodu says XRP is under pressure across several timeframes, and the moving averages back him up. The token is trading below its 20, 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages. That usually means sellers are still in control. Not pretty. If you hold XRP, or you are thinking about trading it, this is one of those setups where the first move should be hesitation, not a market order.
Support also looks thin. Daodu points to the problem once XRP loses $1.09. Buyers have shown some interest around $1.05, and $1 still matters because traders love round numbers, sometimes more than the chart deserves. Below that, the map gets sparse. Daodu’s report says some chart analysts see room for another 40% drop if the wider risk-off mood sticks. That would put XRP near $0.70. Is that a prediction? No. But it is no longer a ridiculous number.
The blockchain data tells a different story. Counter to the usual advice, the ugly chart is not the whole trade here. Wallets holding at least 10,000 XRP reached a record 332,230 in May and kept growing through each 2026 drawdown, according to on-chain data. Wallets with 1 million XRP or more have added a net 42 new addresses since January, their first increase in millionaire wallets since September 2025. Big holders are not running for the exits. Wallets with 10 million XRP or more now control 45.83 billion tokens, or 68.5% of circulating supply, the highest concentration since May 2018. I’ll be honest: I do not love that much concentration. Still, it shows the largest holders tightening their grip while smaller traders stare at red candles.
Whale outflows from exchanges add another layer. Binance just saw whale outflow dominance hit 91.4%, its highest reading since 2024. Daodu notes that when Binance outflow dominance reached similar levels in October 2024, XRP later rallied from about $0.50 to above $3. Most clean chart reads say to avoid weak assets until the trend flips. That’s only half right. History does not owe traders a repeat, but this comparison is hard to wave away. XRP’s monthly Relative Strength Index has also dropped into the oversold reset zone for only the fourth time in 13 years. The previous three cases eventually came before major reversals in XRP’s direction. This fourth one is forming with XRP around $1.09. It works slowly. That does not promise an instant bounce, but it does make the long-cycle signals less bleak than the daily chart.
Regulation still matters for XRP, maybe more than bulls want to admit. Daodu says the CLARITY Act floor vote could shape the token’s outlook for the rest of the year. The bill cleared the Senate Banking Committee on May 14 and moved to the Senate Legislative Calendar on June 1, putting it at stage five of nine. The next step is a full Senate floor vote. Standard Chartered says XRP could reach $2.80 if the CLARITY Act passes and the macro backdrop calms down, with a bullish range as high as $8. That is the optimistic case. If the bill stalls before recess and gets pushed into a later timeline, possibly 2030 or beyond, Standard Chartered’s outlook has XRP falling toward $0.53. Why does this matter? Because XRP still trades like a legal outcome with a token attached. That is a brutal spread, but it fits XRP.
Daodu says a move below $1 is possible, not certain. He expects XRP to test $1 before this leg of the selloff ends, with two factors deciding whether that level breaks. The first is Bitcoin. If BTC can reclaim and hold above $60,000, XRP has a better chance of stabilizing. If Bitcoin slips into the $55,000 zone, Daodu expects XRP to follow, even if its own setup improves. That is the irritating truth of altcoins: Bitcoin still sets the weather. The second factor is whether the CLARITY Act gets a Senate floor vote before the August recess. Yes, this contradicts the cleaner “watch the chart” read from above. Bear with me. If it passes, institutional money may have enough reason to come back in, possibly from whatever low XRP prints during this downturn. If it does not, confidence probably stays fragile.
What this means
XRP is in a tense spot. The chart looks bad. The on-chain data looks oddly firm. The regulatory setup could still flip the trade faster than a moving-average model would like. In the short term, the trend is down. A move toward $0.70 is possible if the broader market stays defensive. At the same time, whale accumulation and rare oversold RSI readings suggest some long-term holders are buying the weakness. I would not call it clean. I would call it tense.
For now, Bitcoin comes first. If BTC holds above $60,000, XRP gets some breathing room. If Bitcoin drops toward $55,000, XRP probably has a harder time defending $1. Is this overkill for one altcoin chart? Not really, because XRP has two live triggers instead of one: Bitcoin’s direction and the CLARITY Act timeline. The Senate vote before the August recess is the regulatory line to watch. Passage could bring institutions back into the trade and change XRP’s path quickly. If the bill stalls, Standard Chartered’s $0.53 downside case becomes harder to dismiss.