Bloomberg Analyst Mike McGlone: “Bitcoin May Have Already Hit Its Ceiling”
Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Commodities Strategist Mike McGlone thinks Bitcoin may have burned through most of its upside. His downside target is blunt: a possible slide toward $10,000. My take: that is not a throwaway bearish line. It is the whole argument.
McGlone’s view is direct, and it is rough reading if you are long BTC. He says Bitcoin may not have much room left to run, while a drop toward $10,000 still cannot be ruled out. Most crypto bulls say time fixes the chart. That is only half right. Time helps if the market still believes the asset deserves a higher multiple. Maybe Bitcoin does. Maybe it does not. McGlone’s point is simpler: stop treating upside like gravity.
He says the huge monetary expansion in 2020 and 2021 may have been “the best point Bitcoin could reach.” He also notes that BTC has stayed below its 2021 peak near $69,000 since June 2, even as stocks have pushed to record highs. That part is hard to wave away. If Bitcoin were still acting like the cleaner store of value, you would expect more from it here. Instead, McGlone thinks the easy upside is gone. I’ll be honest: unpopular does not mean wrong. If you are sitting on a large BTC position, this is the kind of bearish case you at least have to price in.
He also argues that Bitcoin’s rise helped set off a wave of rival cryptocurrencies, while BTC itself has become more tied to stock market risk appetite. McGlone puts Bitcoin’s 60 day correlation with the S&P 500 at about -0.10 in 2019. As of July 10, he says it was close to 0.60. That is a real shift. Why does it matter? Because a move from about -0.10 to close to 0.60 changes the whole portfolio story. Bitcoin used to be pitched as the asset outside the system. In McGlone’s reading, it now trades more like a high beta tech stock. Risk on, BTC can rise. Risk off, BTC can get hit. Simple enough.
McGlone is also challenging the old “digital gold” label. Bitcoin was once sold as protection against inflation and geopolitical stress. His current view is rougher: BTC has become “one of the assets among tokens that can be produced in unlimited numbers over time.” Yes, Bitcoin itself has a fixed supply. That matters. But crypto as a category does not have a fixed supply, and that is the correction people skip when they repeat the scarcity pitch. New tokens keep showing up. If investors start treating BTC as just another risk token, it will have a hard time acting like a haven when markets break. McGlone says even a limited pullback in assets like the S&P 500 could push Bitcoin toward $10,000. A haven is supposed to hold. It should not add damage.
What this means
McGlone’s argument is that Bitcoin has moved into a different bucket. Less separate asset. More normal risk trade. If he is right, a stock market selloff, Fed tightening, or weaker economic data could drag BTC down too. That matters for anyone who bought Bitcoin for diversification. Counter to the usual advice, the next BTC signal may not come from crypto Twitter at all. For traders, CPI reports, Fed comments, Treasury yields, equity moves, and FOMC meetings may matter more than another round of bullish posts on social media.
The number to watch is BTC’s 60 day correlation with the S&P 500. If it stays above 0.60, McGlone’s risk asset argument becomes harder to brush off. Is that overkill for one metric? No, because the whole diversification claim depends on it. The price levels are clean too: $10,000 on the downside, and the old high near $69,000 on the upside. A clean move above that high would weaken his “highest possible point” argument. Until then, central bank wording matters. A lot. The next few months should show whether Bitcoin can trade on its own story again, or whether it keeps moving with stocks. My read: the burden of proof is back on the bulls.
Frequently asked questions (FAQ)
Q1: Who is Mike McGlone?
A1: Mike McGlone is a Senior Commodities Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence.
Q2: What is McGlone’s main claim about Bitcoin?
A2: He says Bitcoin may have already reached its highest possible point and could fall toward $10,000.
Q3: Why does Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 matter?
A3: McGlone says the rising correlation makes Bitcoin look more like a high beta tech stock than a separate alternative asset.
Q4: How has McGlone’s view on Bitcoin as a safe haven changed?
A4: He now describes Bitcoin as “one of the assets among tokens that can be produced in unlimited numbers,” which weakens the old “digital gold” argument.
Q5: What downside target does McGlone give for Bitcoin?
A5: McGlone says Bitcoin could capitulate toward $10,000.
Q6: What does McGlone think is driving Bitcoin’s price now?
A6: He says Bitcoin is being driven by wider risk appetite, which depends heavily on central bank policy and economic data.
Q7: What should crypto investors watch?
A7: They should watch BTC’s 60 day correlation with the S&P 500, the $10,000 and $69,000 price levels, and upcoming FOMC meetings.
Q8: Does McGlone think Bitcoin still helps with diversification?
A8: His analysis questions that idea. He says Bitcoin is becoming more tied to the wider risk trade.
Q9: What was Bitcoin’s 60 day correlation with the S&P 500 in 2019, according to McGlone?
A9: McGlone says it was about -0.10 in 2019.
Q10: What is Bitcoin’s current 60 day correlation with the S&P 500, according to McGlone?
A10: McGlone says it had moved close to 0.60 as of July 10.