Saylor’s Strategy Shift: Can Bitcoin Hit $100K by Year-End?
Bitcoin could climb 56% if investors buy into Michael Saylor’s new Bitcoin strategy, according to Standard Chartered. Big if. This week, Strategy Inc. (MSTR) stepped away from the old, blunt playbook: buy Bitcoin as quickly as possible and make the market digest it. Now it is using the Bitcoin it already owns as collateral. My take: that is not a small branding change. The market has not loved it, because the trade suddenly looks less like “Bitcoin accumulation” and more like balance-sheet engineering. So the question is plain: is MSTR still a Bitcoin-buying machine, or has it turned into a more complicated financial trade?
Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, pointed to the change on July 10. The pressure point is MSTR’s STRC preferred stock. Instead of issuing new debt or stock to buy more BTC, MSTR is using its large Bitcoin position to back financial products. Why does this matter? Because MSTR’s market value is now close to the value of its Bitcoin holdings. Its mNAV is near 1.0, which gives the company much less room to raise capital at a rich premium and then spend it on more BTC. Investors are trying to price the next move, not the last one. Some worry that Bitcoin sales could follow. Bitcoin was recently trading at $64,322.89, while MSTR closed Friday at $94.64.
Kendrick thinks the market has Saylor wrong. I mostly agree, though not cleanly. In his view, MSTR is not backing away from Bitcoin ownership; it is changing how it uses the Bitcoin it already holds. Most quick takes frame this as a retreat from accumulation. That is only half right. MSTR has spent years as a loud public proxy for institutional Bitcoin demand, and the old strategy was easy to understand: borrow money, issue stock, buy BTC, repeat. Crude. Effective. Risky. This version is harder to read because it turns existing holdings into collateral instead of simply grabbing more coins at every opening. I’ll be honest: “financial engineering around Bitcoin” does not hit the same as “we bought more Bitcoin.”
The debate is whether investors will accept Bitcoin as backing for STRC, or treat that Bitcoin as inventory that could be sold into the market. Kendrick says Saylor needs to show that MSTR can sell Bitcoin if needed, as he has done recently. Then he argues something more subtle: once investors understand the structure, actual sales may become less necessary. Yes, this sounds like a contradiction. Bear with it. He compares the setup to a central bank’s “whatever it takes” line, where the promise can sometimes do the work before the action is required. That is the bullish version. If the market sees MSTR’s plan as a durable way to pull value from BTC without constant selling, the recent anxiety could fade. If not, Bitcoin may stay pinned while traders watch every MSTR move for signs of selling.
“Once we all understand what Saylor is trying to do the pain will go away. And when that happens bitcoin at USD64K is a screaming buy (targeting USD100K end year) which also means MSTR at USD94 is too, as its mNAV is currently right around 1.0.”
Kendrick still expects Bitcoin to reach $100,000 by the end of 2026. From about $64,000, that would be roughly 56% upside. His case depends on investors deciding that the MSTR drama is “mostly noise rather than a signal of $BTC’s medium-term direction.” He also says STRC, with about $10 billion in notional value outstanding, is heavily over-collateralized by Bitcoin. Is this overkill? For a company sitting near a 1.0 mNAV, no. If buyers begin to trust that structure, STRC could move back toward $100 from the $90 area. That would make MSTR’s new model look less like a red flag and more like a usable financing tool. It could also make Bitcoin easier for institutions to treat as a store of value. Not because of geopolitics. Not because of panic buying. Because large holders need financing structures that feel predictable, and right now the balance-sheet questions are doing real damage.
What this means
Strategy Inc. is trying a different corporate Bitcoin model. The company is no longer just stacking coins and daring the market to keep up. It is using Bitcoin as collateral for credit products. Counter to the usual advice, that does not automatically make the setup weaker. It does make it harder to explain. For crypto investors, MSTR’s role changes: the company may matter less as a direct buyer and more as a live test of whether institutions trust Bitcoin-backed financing. If the model works, it could reduce fear of forced selling and give other companies a way to use crypto treasuries without constantly issuing more stock. Or debt. That distinction matters.
The next thing to watch is communication. MSTR needs to explain STRC clearly, and Saylor needs to persuade investors that the collateral is a strength, not a future sell wall. Earnings calls, public comments, and STRC’s price will matter. My bias here: price will speak louder than the pitch deck. If STRC climbs back toward $100, Kendrick’s argument gets easier to accept. If it stays weak, or if the market keeps seeing risk in the collateral setup, Bitcoin could keep grinding around $64,000. Annoying, but not surprising. Traders hate uncertainty, and this strategy has plenty of it right now.