Analyst warns Bitcoin could repeat 2018, with sub-$40K flush still possible
Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen thinks Bitcoin (BTC) may still have one ugly move left. His reason is not complicated: the chart keeps rhyming with the 2018 bear market. If that comparison keeps working, BTC could face one last capitulation before a real recovery starts. My take: that is the part bulls keep trying to wave away, but it explains why every small rally still feels brittle.
Benjamin Cowen says Bitcoin’s current cycle looks uncomfortably close to earlier bear markets, especially 2018. He told investors that “history is repeating itself” and warned that the next few months could get rough. Most cycle comparisons are lazy. This one is at least specific enough to respect. Cowen thinks Bitcoin is tracking the 2018 bear market closely enough to matter, and in his view, the final capitulation may not have happened yet. Traders will not love that part.
Cowen sees several similarities between Bitcoin’s 2018 bear market and the current cycle. In both periods, Bitcoin made a major low in February. March and April brought higher lows. In May, BTC rallied toward its 200-day moving average in both cycles. Then June and early July started to look familiar too. In June 2018, Bitcoin dropped to about $5,700 before bouncing. This time, BTC tested roughly $57,000 during the June and July stretch. Why does this matter? Because Cowen is not pointing to a vague mood; he is pointing to February, March, April, May, June, and early July lining up in sequence. Cowen put it bluntly: “I keep telling myself that this pattern won’t continue, but the market stubbornly persists in playing this pattern.”
If Cowen is right, Bitcoin’s next drop may arrive alongside weakness in stocks. Not just crypto. He is watching the broader risk trade too, because Cowen argues that the 10% to 20% stock market corrections that often appear in August or September can set off Bitcoin’s last capitulation move. That tracks. When investors cut risk, they usually do not stop with one chart. BTC gets sold. Altcoins get sold harder. Equities can drag the whole thing lower. Cowen also thinks that kind of pressure could push the Federal Reserve closer to rate cuts, and he expects those cuts to help drive the next major crypto bull market heading into 2027.
Cowen sees room for a July relief rally, but he does not think that proves the bottom is in. I will be honest: that is the most useful part of the argument, because it separates a bounce from a trend change. Bitcoin could bounce in July, he said, but he would treat that as temporary unless the data changes. Bear markets often bottom in Q4, though Cowen thinks this cycle could bottom earlier, maybe in late September or October, because of time based indicators. He gives only a 40% to 45% chance that the absolute bottom is already in. So, yes, one more drop is more likely than not in his framework. Cowen said Bitcoin could fall below its realized price, which he puts near $53,000. A move into the high $40,000s or low $50,000s would not surprise him. The deeper level is just below $40,000, which he calls the equilibrium price. Is this overkill? For anyone trading only the weekly chart, no. If Bitcoin wicks there, Cowen believes the bearish setup would reset and the market could turn back toward a bullish outlook. I would still be careful with that framing. A wick below $40,000 might clean up the chart, but it would not feel clean to anyone holding through it.
What this means
Cowen’s view is that July strength may be a bounce, not proof that the trend has changed. Counter to the usual advice, the cleanest signal here may not be a green candle; it may be whether Bitcoin loses the $53,000 realized price and then searches for liquidity closer to the sub-$40,000 equilibrium area. If that happens, Cowen thinks the market would reset enough to support a longer bullish setup. Short term, though, it would hurt. Simple as that.
The levels to watch are $53,000 and the area just below $40,000. August and September matter too, because Cowen’s thesis depends partly on whether equities see a 10% to 20% correction in late summer. Fed language matters as well. If traders start pricing in rate cuts, Cowen believes that could become the fuel for a larger crypto bull market into 2027. Yes, this slightly contradicts the July-bounce caution above. Bear with me: the point is timing. A July bounce can fail, a late-summer flush can reset conditions, and rate-cut expectations can still help the next cycle. For now, the plain answer is probably the right one: watch price, watch stocks. Do not treat one July bounce as proof that the cycle has turned.
FAQ
Q: Who is Benjamin Cowen?
A: Benjamin Cowen is a crypto data analyst who studies Bitcoin cycles, historical price patterns, and on-chain data.
Q: What is Cowen’s main warning about Bitcoin?
A: Cowen says Bitcoin may be repeating parts of its 2018 bear market pattern, which could mean one final capitulation move is still ahead.
Q: What historical pattern is Cowen referring to?
A: He points to similar Bitcoin price action in February, March, April, May, June, and early July compared with the 2018 bear market.
Q: What is Cowen’s short term price forecast for Bitcoin?
A: Cowen says Bitcoin could fall below its realized price near $53,000, with a possible wick to the equilibrium price just below $40,000.
Q: When does Cowen expect the final bottom to occur?
A: Cowen thinks the final bottom could arrive before Q4, possibly in late September or October, based on time based indicators.
Q: What role do traditional stock markets play in Cowen’s analysis?
A: Cowen believes a 10% to 20% stock market correction in August or September could trigger Bitcoin’s final capitulation move.
Q: What does Cowen believe will fuel the next major crypto bull market?
A: Cowen thinks Federal Reserve interest rate cuts could help fuel the next major crypto bull market as 2027 approaches.
Q: What is the “realized price” of Bitcoin?
A: Bitcoin’s realized price, currently around $53,000 in Cowen’s analysis, is the average price at which all BTC last moved on-chain.
Q: What is the “equilibrium price” for Bitcoin according to Cowen?
A: Cowen puts the equilibrium price just below $40,000. He says that level would reset the main on-chain indicators.
Q: What would a drop below $40,000 mean?
A: Cowen says a wick below $40,000 would clear the bearish setup and point to a bullish outlook. It would still be a rough move for anyone holding BTC through it.