Bitcoin started the new trading week with a fall to the local support zone near the level of $41,000. Bitcoin price has stabilized near this area, but there has been no recovery in quotations. Bitcoin’s forecast is conservative, perhaps BTC will try to close the gap at $39,600 before a new round of growth.
Despite the overall macroeconomic positivity, there is no reason to believe that Bitcoin will show a significant price increase. For now, the Bitcoin market remains “overheated,” and therefore the reaction of traders may be unpredictable, even if events develop positively.
The general situation on world markets and its impact on the Bitcoin forecast and its price
In the US, Jerome Powell said that the Fed will make a decision based on incoming data, and therefore there is a hypothetical probability of raising rates at a meeting in December. However, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, 98.4% of traders expect the key rate to remain at its current level, regardless of inflation data.
According to Briley Wealth chief investment strategist Paul Dietrich, the U.S. could fall into a severe downturn in early 2024 as the economy flashes several recession signals.
In a note Friday, Dietrich pointed to the monster gains investors have seen in the S&P 500 this year, with the benchmark index notching its best month of the year in November.
The rally is largely driven by expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates early next year, but rate cuts likely won’t happen until the economy goes into recession, Dietrich warned.
The labor market is also starting to weaken. The number of job openings has dropped while ongoing claims for unemployment benefits have steadily risen.
And while the overall unemployment rate fell in November, continuing jobless claims rose briefly to 1.93 million last month.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose about 0.4%, or more than 100 points, and the S&P 500 rose 0.3%. Contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite jumped about 0.5%
Eurozone economic sentiment for the next six months rose to 23 in December, reaching its highest level in 10 months and surprising analysts. The rise of 9.2 points, as shown by the ZEW economic sentiment indicator for the eurozone, exceeded market forecasts of 11.2 points.
The survey took into account the opinions of about 350 financial and economic analysts and measures the difference between those who have a positive outlook on the economy over the next six months and those who have a negative outlook.
Among those surveyed in December, 37.6% of analysts expect economic conditions to improve, while 47.8% predict stability.
However, 14.6% remain cautious, anticipating a possible economic downturn, suggesting a cautious but optimistic outlook for the eurozone’s economic situation over the next six months.
Notably, inflation expectations rose a significant 14.5 points to -58.2, highlighting concerns about rising inflation pressures in the eurozone ahead of the European Central Bank’s next interest rate announcement on Thursday. The rise underscores growing concern among analysts about inflationary trends that could potentially threaten the region’s economic stability.
What will the price of Bitcoin be in the near future?